Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Ok - that is the math that you'd expect because it is the answer that almost everyone gives. But it isn't actually correct. Hopefully the below question will illustrate why. But before calculating the correct answer as per the below question let me re-emphasize that your original (incorrect) answer had Drug A and Drug B as almost exactly equal in risk.

Remaining question - So... what if I told you that the true incidence of the disease among those tested is 1% (e.g. if you tested 10,000 people but treated no one then 100 would die of the disease). And the False Negative rate is 10%.


PS Bonus question - what is the error that you made in your math (an error that almost everyone makes)?