OGXPY has not underperformed to the same extent as PBG. Not even close.
Nor has the underperformance been comparable to PBR. And I'm not a really big fan of PBR. It's selling at a nice premium to debt-adjusted proven reserves, and more importantly, shareholders don't really own the company. It's more like a public utility, run for the benefit of the government and the public. It deserves a low P/E relative to other majors.
Back to PBG. It got cut in half in the last two months, and that's after already having been decimated. The short interest is huge. Unless you know something that others don't, I don't think it's smart to get involved.
A value investor has to take technicals seriously because there is undisclosed, unrevealed information that only manages to "get out" in the form of technicals. With these resource companies, there are things that we don't know, but that people on the ground do know.
Do we really know what PBG's reserves are? What the value is? What oil price they need to be economical? Of course, we know what PBG tells us, but how do we know that it's accurate and true, and not an exaggeration? PBG wants the stock to go up, so they are incented to feed us bull shit. Remember, this is Canada, almost like USX China in terms of a scammy market. You have to be careful with the huge reserve babble they give you. Sometimes it's not the full truth. And little errors tend to make a big difference in this game, unfortunately.
If PBG were the huge opportunity that some claim, then someone in the know, some Canadian hedge fund whose managers have an E&P background and a familiarity with the region, would find out about it and would step in here to buy it on the open market. They would provide a bid. There would be potential M&A discussions.
Given these huge reserves and the huge potential of this technology, why won't any players step up and make an offer? There is plenty of cash, money is cheap right now. If you were the CEO of Shell or Baytex, and you knew that PBG had 5 times its market value in PV10 economical reserves, a stake in a similarly undervalued Bakken play, and a potentially game changing oil sands technology, wouldn't you step up with an offer here?
That's not what's happening. No one is buying, no one is offering to buy. The only thing that is happening is relentless selling. The selling is happening with conviction. Even after the stock drops 50% in two months, you still have underperformance, even on up days like today.
As for PBN creditors going after PBG, don't be so sure that wouldn't happen. Look at the case of HWG and their natural gas subsidiary. Creditors go after the parent company quite often, and sometimes they win.
That's what will probably happen in a future BAC/Countrywide bankruptcy IMO. BAC thinks they will just put Countrywide into Chapter 7 or Chapter 11, but you can bet your life that will go through a nasty court battle.
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