Global Value Investing

[ratobranco]

PBG - There you go again. You need to subtract out debt. PBG has ~$600MM in convertible debentures. If the heavy oil assets are worth $800MM, then the company is worth $200MM. So at $700MM PBG is selling at more than a 200% premium to your "conservative" analysis.

PBN debt is a ballooning mess. Just over the last 6 months bank debt has increased 40%. If we have a severe, prolonged recession and PBN has to file for bankruptcy, you can rest assured that creditors will go after PBG assets.

Markets don't lie, people do. The price action in this name has been horrifying. Personally, I would wait for a catalyst followed by a clear uptrend before getting involved. And then if the stock starts behaving like a dog again, cut the losses quick. Fortunately, I did that shortly after I bought this POS at 15.00, and now I can by it for 6.50. Six months from now, who knows, maybe I will be able to buy it for 3.00.