Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Intelligence Brief: Uzbekistan

23 June 2005

The announcement on June 16 that Uzbekistan had banned night flights into and out of the U.S. air base in Khanabad marks the first serious geostrategic fallout from Washington's ambivalent response to the violent suppression by Tashkent of mass protests against the regime of President Islam Karimov in May in the city of Andijan.

The Khanabad base, which supports U.S. military operations in neighboring Afghanistan, is a key component in U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Runsfeld's redeployment policy, which envisions the substitution of large concentrations of troops in Europe and South Korea with smaller "lily-pad" deployments in weaker acquiescent states in northeast Africa and Eurasia. The aims of the Rumsfeld plan are to protect strategic energy supplies, curb destabilizing moves by Islamic revolutionaries throughout the vast region, and counter initiatives unfavorable to Washington's interests by Moscow and Beijing.

As an immediate result of Tashkent's action, Washington has had to move some aircraft to Afghanistan and to mount resupply operations from its base in Kyrgyzstan, adding to expenses and detracting from efficiency. From a longer-term perspective, the flight limitations are a signal to Washington that the Karimov regime is prepared to sacrifice U.S.-Uzbek relations and, perhaps, even to eliminate the U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan, if Washington does not give it a free hand in its efforts to suppress dissent.

Tashkent denied on June 18 that its slap at Washington was related to Andijan and said that the flight limitations were in the works for a long time and that Washington "knew why." Whatever the case, the restrictions, which are neither decisive nor final, reveal underlying weaknesses in the Rumsfeld strategy, which depends for its success on compliant governments where the lily pads are located.

International Response to Andijan

The troubles in Andijan were sparked by a prison revolt and a mass demonstration of 10,000 protestors attacking the trial of 23 local businessmen who were accused of supporting illegal Islamist organizations deemed by the government to be "terrorist." In its ensuing attempts to suppress the direct action, the regime blocked off the city and, according to human rights organizations, killed at least 800 people and caused a flow of refugees into neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The regime claims that 175 people died, almost all of them terrorists.

Despite attempts by the regime to close off the flow of information, the suppression of the Andijan protest came under the searchlight of the international news media and spurred responses by all of the major power centers playing the new "great game" for influence in Central Asia, where Uzbekistan is the largest country with 26.5 million people; it also has the strongest military and is a major exporter of gold and oil.

As the biggest prize in the great game, China, Russia, the European Union and the U.S. all have interests and deep involvement in Uzbekistan. The Karimov regime has attempted to play its suitors off against one another, gaining maximum autonomy, trade deals, and economic and military aid.

The postures of the great powers toward Andijan are complicated by the long-term instability and vulnerability of the Karimov regime that was revealed by the protests. A first secretary of the Communist Party when Uzbekistan was part of the former Soviet Union, Karimov has presided over an authoritarian regime since 1990 that has suppressed parliamentary opposition, jailed and tortured dissidents, outlawed organized expression of all forms of Islam at variance with the regime's officially sanctioned version, and failed to produce economic growth, particularly in the restive Fergana Valley where Andijan is located.

Karimov's sources of support are alliances with sectors of Uzbekistan's regionalized clan-based society, crony capitalists, and the country's security apparatus. Up until the present, he has been able to maintain control, but the future of his regime is uncertain, putting the interests of the parties to the great game at risk.

Anxious to eliminate the U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan and to draw Tashkent firmly and unequivocally into their Central Asian strategic alliance ­- the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (S.C.O.) -- ­Moscow and Beijing have placed their bets on Karimov, unreservedly supporting the Andijan crackdown and affirming his account of it and his decision to reject calls for an independent international investigation into the incident. As Uzbekistan's largest export partners, Russia and China see the opportunity to further their joint quest for a comprehensive and secure sphere of influence in Central Asia.

In contrast, the E.U. has been the most forthright proponent of an independent investigation, threatening a partial suspension of cooperation with Tashkent -- if it does not acquiesce in the demand -- that would probably fall short of trade sanctions, but might include a downgrading of diplomatic relations and a travel ban on regime officials. With the least involvement in Uzbekistan of the interested parties, the E.U. states have the least to lose and the most potentially to gain if Karimov falls, especially if a reformist government takes its place.

Caught in the middle, with its military presence in Uzbekistan to protect and its general policy of promoting democratic reform in the Islamic world in jeopardy if it follows Moscow and Beijing, Washington has been unable to formulate a coherent response to Andijan, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying that an "international role" in investigating Andijan is necessary, and ­- according to a report in the Washington Post ­- U.S. Defense Department officials blocking a proposed demand from N.A.T.O., urged by Western European states, including Britain, for an independent investigation.

The Bottom Line

With the underlying instability of the Karimov regime revealed by the events in Andijan, the parties to the new great game in Central Asia have positioned themselves strictly in terms of their perceived interests in the context of uncertainty about the future.

Banking on Karimov's ability to right his regime, Beijing and Moscow pursue their aim of a strategic, economic and increasingly ideological bloc in Central Asia. Standing to benefit from the regime's collapse, Brussels puts pressure on it. Cross-pressured by conflicting policy aims, hardened into a conflict between the State and Defense departments, Washington seems to be unable to achieve a clear reading of the priorities among its interests.

Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein



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