Blue, I would like to expand a little on this theme.
<b.It’s extremely hard to quantify patent revenue from afar without having DNAPrint’s strat plan. However, considering that statins, as a group, are the world’s most prescribed drugs, you could discern that the statin patent could pay nicely.
This is one of the foundation blocks that keep investors interested in this stock through all of the turmoil. It is the 'mother lode' who's very existance is a comfort.
The concept, while seemingly straightforward, is nevertheless a little nebulous. The basic assumption is that a drug classifier will be used to test patients 'before' they take a specific statin drug to determine the suitability of that specific drug to that specific patient. So far so good.
This current discussion however, is a little bit removed from that, as it talks about the revenue potential of the statin 'patent'. First one must understand that the 'revenue' will come from the classifier itself, not the patent. All the patent will do is protect the classifier from competition, the classifier will need to be completed in order for any revenue to occur. The patent will not generate revenue. It may impact share value, but not revenue.
If we turn our attention then back to the classifier we need to assess it's value, not in a vacuum, but in relationship to the current status quo. Currently, statins are prescribed, taken for a brief period, the patient is tested to see if the precursors of liver damage are evident, and the drug is either approved for that patient or not, based on the test.
In this case there is very little risk to the patient, there is a simple and relatively inexpensive test, and there is no delay in therapy. This is the status quo for the majority of statin patients. Those that have issues with the test sometimes have to loop through the process a couple of times with different drugs, some patients exhibit other symptoms that have to be addressed.
While it is often the case that we concentrate on the low percentage of exceptions, the reality is the economic value needs to consider the entire market. For DNAP to gain a foothold in this arena they need to provide a service that is noticeably better and economically more valuable than the existing and accepted process.
If the statin classifier (once completed) does not delay the access to therapy and if it can be offered at a competetive price to the entire market, (Meaning, not just more economical for those patients who need to loop through the existing process more than once, but more economical for the entire market, with the exceptions amortized out over the entire population) then it can be a viable and lucrative product.
Just remember it is not sufficient to have a great solution, it is also necessary to have a problem in need of such a solution. There is nothing more frustrating than having a profound and clever solution but no appropriate problem to solve with it.
regards,
frog
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