MediumLlama - No, I have NOT at all in any way given up on the 'other' one. I think that company will do quite well getting distributor contracts and sellling the patented product, I am very bullish on it. I have invested for many years though and you realize over time that this game is not just about always making some kind of ROI, it is a war, the market is a battlefield and sometimes examples need to be made and a point needs to be made instead of just taking whatever the 'market' gives you and capitulating. Each investor must make his own decisions but I for one get to a certain point, watching spec plays of mine be manipulated and ground into the dust taken down more than 75% in valuation by .5% of the tradeable float and finally just switch gears and not care about ROI in the investment anymore. I am just a stubborn bastard but hey each to his own, it is my right if I want to just decide to never sell my shares in something.
If brokerages and crooked MMs want to try to grind me into the dust that is their decision, but they cannot manipulate the entire market one way (down) forever, eventually buyers will start nibbling and drawing the line in the sand and/or the SEC will step in and find these clowns who are taking the entire market down every single day because of the latest Euro debt news flash. They have billions of liquid capital to start trading with every day at 9:30am and they go in whichever direction the 'futures' were trading, so right now it is shorting everything in sight with no buyers present. Look at the CNBC big boards these days, on down days EVERYTHING is red, the correlation is the highest it has ever been in the market which tells you that all the retail investors are out for good, only a few crooked hedge funds and day traders still are trading this market and they are all using bots and the path of least resistance is always down.
You have to remember two main points, one is that the pps was taken down from .025 on roughly 10% of the float over the couple months time period that the stock has been in a DTCC 'lock', and two is that the current pps has never accurately reflected the true 'valuation' for the stock, no matter what fundamental positives or negatives are upcoming or occuring in the present for the company itself. Until a quarter or two of reporting actual decent sales and profit whilst chipping away at their liabilities, the pps will not trade with support levels or anywhere near a decent 'valuation', it is a pure speculation 'play' for the traders so they will buy a few shares here or there at WHATEVER price it is going for at whatever time they think that it is favorable for them to be buying. You can see that the same share blocks are being bought at todays prices as was bought when the stock was trading in the mid .05's; think about this, that means that 10k shares back then cost 100k*.05=$5,000 and those same shares are being bought now at 100k*.0031=$310, but that also means that someone who owned 100k shares back then was content selling them to make $5,000 but now after all of the positives fundamentally for the company they are willing and content to sell them for $310??! No, I don't think so, it is simply MMs doing their 'thing' coupled with no one in the USA able to buy shares. They know that if they release the trading restrictions for USA brokerages, the stock will sky rocket again sharply and quickly. Why? Because normally the buying pressure is spread out over time but during the time that the stock has been locked, the buyers have been blocked so demand for the shares has been building and building. Once the buyers can finally buy, watch out, the ASK will sky rocket and the bids for tens of millions of shares will come flooding in all at once, spiking the price. What better way to try as hard as they can to know that most shareholders have already capitulated and been scared out of the stock than to take it down 25% one day then the next day another 50%, etc, etc? It is the surest way to know that when you turn around and spike the price that when YOU dump, YOU are the ONLY one dumping and not some other shmoe next to you with a similar number of shares; why share whatever profits can be had?
Ultimately, I know fundamentally where this company is going and I am very excited about their prospects. I have for many months been nice and allowed some real settled shares to sit able to be sold for a particular price which I thought was reasonable based on how the stock had traded over the last 6 months but they just kept pulling the pps down further into sub penny day after day on very little volume so I eventually just got sick of it and canceled my orders and now called Roth to get my stock certificate. Remember, a 'trade' is when a buyer AND a seller exists. What would happen to the imaginary pps if there just were NO shares available for potential buyers? Do not be fooled by the current pps, the buyers NEED to buy, if you assume that they have naked shorted the %@$! out of the shares over many many months period. For now, while we wait for the company to get current and compliant the 'game' is to just keep resetting the clock for delivering real settled shares into clients accounts by shuffling a few hundred shares between the brokers who were involved but eventually the music stops and the clock ticks down to an end. At that point, just like in early 2009, you will see the pps spike to specific pps points because those will be the only shares available at that time. I estimate the holders to number at roughly 300, and the average position size to be close to about 500k shares, so roughly 150M shares are 'owned' (many probably still sitting in Etrade/Ameri/ST accounts with unsettled phantom shares) by retail investors. If you consider that the float was roughly 330M shares and that TS shares (70M) were liquidated and taken out of the float by the law then the float is probably somewhere at more like 250M so that means NSS 'participants' have roughly 100M shares. However, about this many could have been naked shorted over the years so they would need to cover those and that would cancel those shares in the float bringing the float down to about 150M ultimately. So far, I estimate that immediately before the lock and afterwards the legit shorts have covered about 40M shares and the naked short have covered roughly 30M shares so there still could very easily be a roughly 50M to 80M naked short position. IF (that is a big if), if those 'participants' are ever forced to cover then they would be made to buy say 50M shares in an open market for the stock, that would mean they would need to purchase about 1/3 of the float from retail holders/sellers immediately before or after the 'lock' is taken off. I imagine about 1/3 of the holders will gladly just want out and sell for btw .01 and .02, 1/3 of the holders will be content to take .02 to .03 for the shares and the last 1/3 of holders I think will not sell, therefore I think about 30M or so shares will be bought on the first day or two and we will see the pps rise to about .035 then only needing another 20M shares they will 'retrace' the pps back down to .02 or .025 for a while and see if over time, maybe accumulating 5M shares per day for 4 days or so they can get shares at or near those prices. The issue for them is that mass amounts of other buyers will be pouring into the stock, so they will IMO be also causing buying pressure in the tens of millions so I think that the outline above would be the ideal scenario for these 'participants', but instead what could really happen is that the pps spikes back to the old high of .08 on 100M volume or greater. Then as the days progress the traders who bought in at .08 will not sell for less so I think the pps will then spike up higher past .10 and on to .25, but then after about a 100% gain the traders, just like before, will start taking all their profits and the stock will come back down to say the .10 to .14 range for several weeks, just total guess on my part but I have studied this stock for months and months.
Will it 'ever hit green again'? SURE, I am very confident it will and in a BIG way. The pps ranges also depend solely on whatever the fundamental news brings as well, so if distributor contracts are announced then all bets are off, it will sky rocket past all expectations but the ranges I outlined are if no new developments are announced but the stock just trades on normal market trading dynamics based on pent-up buyer demand for the shares coupled with the mess of naked shorts and other participants who MUST buy in the midst of so many hundreds of traders buying small'ish positions of about 250k shares on average.
I do not care anymore what happens with the pps or stock anymore, I care only about the long term story of the company so I have given up on getting any immediate ROI on this investment and instead will just watch what happens and hold my shares tight for many years. That is just my own personal decision. If you care more about an ROI for that investment then I suggest the best course of action would be to wait and sell at the ranges I specified above but ONLY when you see greater than say 10M or 20M shares being traded in a single day; probably will only happen if and when the stock is un'locked'.
cheers
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