>> GTCB: Dew, why don't you see valid reason for Atryn to take more of the market from Plasma-based than $75M?<<
I was counting only the sales that GTCB can reasonably be expected to garner in the next few years in the selected European countries where they chose to market.
Plasma-based antithrombin currently does about $200-250M of annual sales, of which perhaps half--$100-125M--is in EU countries where GTCB (or its partner) may choose to market ATryn. (A large portion of the worldwide plasma-based total is in Japan, where GTCB is not seeking approval.)
ATryn may allow some expansion of the overall antithrombin market in Europe, but most ATryn sales will probably come from taking market share away from plasma-based therapies. My $75M sales forecast represents an assumption that ATryn will take substantial market share but will not completely obliterate the plasma-based therapies.
Of course, ATryn’s sales will be much higher when ATryn is eventually approved in the U.S. and in additional (non-hereditary) indications. Regards, Dew
[The above is a repost of #20660 on the Yahoo GTCB board.]
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”
