China Growth Stocks

[ratobranco]

HRBN isn't over. We're still at the point of just talk. Talk. Talk. Talk. The 120% short interest is obviously changing the minds of shorts, as evidenced in the price action. This could easily go on for another year, so I don't blame the shorts for getting frustrated and wanting to leave the position. Long term, you pay more in interest than you could ever make on a reversion to fair value (which for HRBN is easily less than 1.00).

"Bulls and Bears" and other financial shows exhibit a heavy long bias. They were telling you to buy stocks in 2007 too. According to them, every move down is always overdone, based on irrational fear, bla bla bla--until everything implodes and we find that the sellers were right all along.

It's all bullshit, part of the stock business. Pump it up.

According to ECRI, the only forecasting entity with any credibility, we are going into recession with 100% certainty. The banks are going to get crushed. Their interest spreads have imploded as a result of the weakness, and also as a result of QE twist, and the situation is only going to get worse.

http://www.businesscycle.com/

If the banks need a bailout, I'm not sure they will get one in an election year with Republicans controlling the house. Should be interesting. CDS spreads don't lie, and they are rising very quickly for financials right now.

As for Warren Buffet, he is not someone you want to look to when you invest. He made his money a long time ago in a market highly conducive to long investing. His recent performance has not been good by any stretch. His prior "high publicity" investments, for example, have all done poorly--and that was with the help of the tax payer being forced to bail out both of his picks, GS and GE, after he invested in them. Of course, he was able to get sweet heart deals on the non-equity portion of the investments, but you don't have access to that so you shouldn't worry about it.

He does all this "save the day" crap to be patriotic. To be the "generous grandpa" that everyone loves. He feeds off that. He enjoys the attention. Never mind whether the investment will make any money. He'll probably be dead before it will even be possible to know whether the investment was a good one, i.e., whether BAC survives the great stagnation or not.