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Re: marthambles post# 5952

Thursday, 09/22/2011 3:13:38 PM

Thursday, September 22, 2011 3:13:38 PM

Post# of 20689

but if your theory is correct, it means that MNTA wins.

Yes, I see your point: Had AW been completely certain of its innocence it could have just launched "at risk," without prior warning, and the devil take the hindmost.

Still and all, that course seems a bit risky, given the "bet the company" stakes. Don't forget, if AW had launched without warning, and MNTA then rushed to court after the fact and stopped them, MNTA still would have lost its profits share irretrievably, whereas AW would have gained very little except a HUGE overhang of potential damages.

While I agree that your point certainly doesn't hurt MNTA, I think the better argument for a likely victory is that the FDA roadmap for approval runs right through the middle of territory defended by MNTA's patents. [Caveat: That is based on MNTA's own assertions, and not on any independent analysis that I've made or seen.] N.b., though it would probably be possible for SNY to launch a generic without violating them, the same reasons that SNY has not done so thus far probably will continue to apply as long as the current duopoly continues.