Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Looks like I came closest, at least on day one.

Not to be picky but I was talking about valuation not the price trough on a generic approval and explicitly stated it* could swing to 8-10. May still get to the top of that range on an AG launch and/or tL. Of course, all the valuation estimates were predicated on tL approval not aL. aL is somewhat worse given that it weakly infers that tL will follow.

My royalty estimates were crudely done for a steady state - getting to those numbers should take 12-24 months or perhaps longer. Until tL approval it is still a 4 way.

The crudeness comes mainly from making no attempt to differentiate the sell-in to the two distinct markets.

BTW - unless tL gets approved by October, I was wrong about that. aL does not make my statements right - just oddly similar.

ij


* http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62870613&txt2find=tL