Biotech Values

[zipjet]

My basic point is that the risk-reward on MNTA is steadily improving here with their cash position and the increased royalty rate.

True.

The risk of decline (excluding a spike response) in the stock is a function of the delta of the stock price and the value given tL approval. My post that started this discussion suggested that risk is just $2 ps.

My best guess is that the probability of tL approval is slightly over 50:50 and dropping over time.

tL trial 2013: I find no strong inferences from the trial date setting. Another indicator to look at would be how aggressively MNTA/Sandoz is pursuing discovery to prove their right to a TRO/PI. Keep in mind that the trial date will not be as critical as the ability to seek a TRO and sustain a PI. M/S did not do that at filing. They need to get into a position to stop the launch and discovery is the path to the evidence they need.

IF M/S is aggressively pursuing discovery, one inference is that they are concerned that TEVA MAY get approval.

IF M/S is not pursuing discovery or doing so lackadaisically, one inference is that they do not think (or perhaps do not want to) they are likely to prevail on the TRO/PI.

ij