Mostly: Classical

[lvlamb]

Angela is seen as a catastrophy. Current chancelor Schroeder made some needed reforms and lost any chances to be re-elected.
So, Angela would take a more liberal stance in reaction. Baad for the Euro.

My take is rather the antagony between the UK way and other European economies as Danmark and Sweden which can afford high social security standards with low un-employment rates.

Beyond this, while the UK is about to take the rotating presidency of Europe there is a major incompatibility on France and UK positions on the European budget. Both are non-negociable:
UK wants to keep the Maggie Tatcher discount (they should contribute 12.5 bill Euro instead of the current 7.5 bil to contribute the same way then the other member states). In other words, Eastern countries as Poland or the Tshek Republic contribute to the budget of the UK),
and France wants to keep the help from the Common Agricultural Pact. Which, in other words helps France agricultur4e to stay afloat. Large conglomerates get the money, the farmers get no help.

So, as Tony Bliar repeated at noon, if any repartition of the budget is put in question, all the policy of European budgeting must be re-negociated from scratch.

Just what the voters of Netherlands and France said. July 10 is the turn of Luxemburg which also trends to the no.

It is that major start from scratch renegociation I am expecting.

And a clear position of the UK. We are a bit concerned about the way the UK sees Europe as " Mr. Blair goes to Washington" more often than he visits colleagues of the Union.
A clear stance and a clear no-vote from the UK would help to know which card game they are playing, Atlantic or Europe, they can't play both.

I hope both the coincident UK presidency and chancelor Merkel will be too much for the rest of the EU to wait for 2007 (end of the referendums as planned) and that strong acts will be posed after the hollidays.
If there is no move by then, an EU with soon 27 members will cease to exist.
And we would be back 40 years, and restart the small kernel.