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Saturday, August 20, 2011 2:49:02 PM
From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 19-Aug-11Stocks started the week strong, but economic uncertainty took hold and sank risky assets across the world with the S&P 500 falling 4.7%. Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield hitting a record low below 2.0% and gold advanced to an all-time nominal high.
Uncertainty regarding the state of Europe pressured stocks, especially financials. Germany's economy grew by just 0.1% in the second quarter and the eurozone GDP increased by just 0.2%. Germany's DAX equity index fell 8.6% for the week and is now down 21% this year. Asian indices also posted steep losses. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.7%.
Cyclical sectors took a pounding, while defensive sectors outperformed as investors positioned themselves for a potential downturn. Tech dropped 8.0%, industrials gave up 7.1% and materials shed 6.9%. Defensive investments utilities climbed 1.9%, consumer staples and telecom ended with slight losses near the unchanged mark.
Within the tech sector Google (GOOG -12.9%) shed 13% after the company announced it will acquire Motorola Mobility (MMI 54.7%) for $60 a share, a 60% premium.
Dell (DELL -5.9%) came under pressure as the company's downside guidance cast a pall over its upside earnings surprise. Pessimism about the company's near-term prospects lends credence to concerns that some analysts have about tech spending amid a slowdown in macro activity.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -27.0%) plunged 27% on word that the company plans to sell its PC business and purchase UK-based data analytics company Autonomy for $11 bln. HP also is pulling its devices based of a WebOS, which it acquired with the $1.2 bln purchase of Palm.
In other corporate news, retailers Home Depot (HD 4.3%), Target (TGT 3.0%) and Wal-Mart (WMT 5.1%) posted better-than-expected EPS.
Treasuries rallied as investors sought a safe haven. The 10-year yield dipped below 2.0% and settled the week at 2.07%, a decline of roughly 20 basis points from the start of the week.
Gold prices rallied 6.3% as the precious metal broke through another all-time nominal high. Crude oil fell 3.8% on concerns of a slowing global economy. The dollar index fell 0.8%.
09:22 am Dell initiated with a Sell at Ticonderoga; tgt $9.25: . Ticonderoga initiates DELL with a Sell and price target of $9.25. Despite the transformation of Dell's portfolio that we believe will ultimately have a long-term positive impact on the company, they cannot overlook Dell's high exposure to the public and consumer markets in a period of growing austerity programs and weakening consumer demand. At the same time, they have concerns regarding Dell's surging operating expenses as the co invests in new businesses that they believe will result in incrementally higher operating leverage in a tough environment and could cut more deeply into profits versus the last downturn. Valuation may appear attractive but not with the risks they see.
09:22 am Rubicon Tech initiated with a Sell at Ticonderoga; tgt $9: . Ticonderoga initiates RBCN with a Sell and price target of $9.Rubicon is a leading provider of sapphire wafers serving the LED, RF chip and optoelectronics market. While the co has benefited from excess profits throughout 2010 and 1H11 due to LED wafer supply constraints, current excess inventory and new entrants are accelerating wafer commoditization and eroding margins over the long term for Rubicon. believe with Rubicon's gross margins likely to trend downward towards 30% over time, they believe the stock should be valued at 1.5x Price/FTM Sales for a $9 tgt.
09:22 am Aixtron initiated with a Buy at Ticonderoga: . Ticonderoga initiates AIXG with a Buy. AIXTRON is the current market leader in process equipment primarily serving the LED market. As the current market leader in MOCVD process tools, AIXTRON is poised for strong secular growth as LEDs are expected to have a 25-30% CAGR during the next several years. Given the company's dominant market position in an oligopolistic market, we believe AIXTRON will maintain attractive margins during this high-growth period.
09:21 am Cree initiated with a Buy at Ticonderoga; tgt $39: . Ticonderoga initiates CREE with a Buy and price target of $39. With gross margins appearing to have bottom in the June quarter and pricing pressure subsiding, we believe Cree, along with the LED industry, is in a cyclical recovery driven by improving general lighting demand applications. As both revenue and gross margins recover, they believe Cree should command a 4x Price/FY12 Sales valuation consistent with other historical chip leaders such as QCOM, (cell phone enabler), INTC, (PC enabler) and BRCM (WiFi enabler) when comparing P/S versus gross margin percentage for a $39 tgt.
2:08 pm S&P Tech Sector Trades About Two Percent Lower
The tech sector is trading lower and is the worst performing S&P sector today. Semiconductors are showing relative strength in the tech space, however, with the Philly Semi Index trading 0.3% lower. Among chips in the index, MRVL (+6.4%) is a notable leader, while RBCN (-3.1%) is lagging. Among other major indices, the S&P 500 is trading 0.6% lower, while the NASDAQ is trading 0.6% lower. The QQQ, meanwhile, is trading 0.5% lower. Among tech bellwethers, ORCL (+0.04%) is showing relative strength, while IBM (-2.7%) is under pressure.
In earnings last night, HPQ (-20.1%) reported an inline quarter and guided lower, CRM (-0.7%) and ADSK (-10.5%) posted beats with slightly upside guidance, MRVL (+6.4%) posted an inline quarter and guidance, and INTU (+9.3%) reported a beat with inline guidance.
In news, HPQ (-20.1%) confirmed it will acquire Autonomy and evaluate strategic alternatives for its PSG. In rumors, we are hearing continued M&A interest in IDCC (-1.2%) making the rounds.
Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, RIMM (+4.5%) was upgraded to Hold at Jefferies and Needham upgraded DELL (+2.7%) to Buy. In downgrades, HPQ (-20.1%) was downgraded at a host of firms including Needham and Deutsche Bank.
11:50 am S&P Health Care Sector Outperforming The Broader Market
The Healthcare sector +0.4% is outperforming the weakness in the S&P 500 -0.04%.
News: SGNT +10% launches Vecuronium Bromide for injection, CYTK +3.4% announces Phase I and Phase IIa clinical trial results for Omecamtiv Mecarbil Published in the Journal Lancet, FURX +1.4% enters into loan agreement for up to $15 mln, UTHR +0.8% S.A.C. Capital reports a 3.6% passive stake in the co, ARRY -0.68% BVF Partners reports a 6% stake in the co, and CVM -5.7% announced that it has received and responded to a Warning Letter issued to the Co by the Division of Drug Advertising Marketing and Compliance.
Broker Research: NKTR +3.6% initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners, CERN +1.6%, upgraded at Cowen, SSRX +0.4% initiated iwth an Outperform at Cowen, HLS -0.9% initiated with a Buy at Mizuho.
10:15 am LDK Solar Lowers Revenue Guidance (LDK)
LDK Solar (LDK $5.80 -0.77) lowered its second quarter revenue guidance to $480 million to $500 million, down from $710 million to $760 million versus the $716.40 million Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
With wafer shipments between 1.8 gigawatts (GW) and 2.0 GW, and gross margins between 15% and 20%. The co previously forecasted wafer shipments between 2.7 and 2.9 gigawatts (GW), module shipments between 800 MW and 900 MW, in-house polysilicon production between 10,000 MT and 11,000 MT, in-house cell production between 500 MW and 600 MW and gross margin between 24% and 29%.
For its fiscal year 2011, the company lowered its revenue guidance to $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion from $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion versus the $3 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
The company is expecting wafer shipments between 410 and 430 megawatts (MW). As a result of the significant drop in market price for wafers and modules during the second quarter of 2011, LDK Solar expected to write-down $55 million to $60 million of inventories and expected the gross margin for the second quarter of 2011 to be between 1.5% and 2.5%.The company previously forecasted Q2 wafer shipments between 500 MW and 550 MW, and gross margin between 22% to 26%.
10:03 am Salesforce.com Tops Second Quarter EPS And Revenue Expectations (CRM)
Salesforce.com (CRM $118.51 +4.45) reported second quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.30. Non-GAAP results include a one-time charge of $0.04 per diluted share associated with the legal settlement disclosed in the Form 8-K filed on June 15, 2011.
Revenues rose 38.6% year/year to $546 million versus the $528.9 million consensus.
The company issued guidance for the third quarter with EPS of $0.30 to $0.31 versus the $0.31 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and revenues of $568 million to $570 million versus the $556.82 million Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
The company also issued guidance for fiscal year 2012 with EPS of $1.30 to $1.32 versus the $1.32 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and revenues of $2.22 billion to 2.23 billion versus the $2.18 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Russell 2000 697.50 651.69 -45.81 -6.6 -16.8
Uncertainty regarding the state of Europe pressured stocks, especially financials. Germany's economy grew by just 0.1% in the second quarter and the eurozone GDP increased by just 0.2%. Germany's DAX equity index fell 8.6% for the week and is now down 21% this year. Asian indices also posted steep losses. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.7%.
Cyclical sectors took a pounding, while defensive sectors outperformed as investors positioned themselves for a potential downturn. Tech dropped 8.0%, industrials gave up 7.1% and materials shed 6.9%. Defensive investments utilities climbed 1.9%, consumer staples and telecom ended with slight losses near the unchanged mark.
Within the tech sector Google (GOOG -12.9%) shed 13% after the company announced it will acquire Motorola Mobility (MMI 54.7%) for $60 a share, a 60% premium.
Dell (DELL -5.9%) came under pressure as the company's downside guidance cast a pall over its upside earnings surprise. Pessimism about the company's near-term prospects lends credence to concerns that some analysts have about tech spending amid a slowdown in macro activity.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -27.0%) plunged 27% on word that the company plans to sell its PC business and purchase UK-based data analytics company Autonomy for $11 bln. HP also is pulling its devices based of a WebOS, which it acquired with the $1.2 bln purchase of Palm.
In other corporate news, retailers Home Depot (HD 4.3%), Target (TGT 3.0%) and Wal-Mart (WMT 5.1%) posted better-than-expected EPS.
Treasuries rallied as investors sought a safe haven. The 10-year yield dipped below 2.0% and settled the week at 2.07%, a decline of roughly 20 basis points from the start of the week.
Gold prices rallied 6.3% as the precious metal broke through another all-time nominal high. Crude oil fell 3.8% on concerns of a slowing global economy. The dollar index fell 0.8%.
Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
DJIA 11269.02 10817.60 -451.42 -4.0 -6.6
Nasdaq 2507.98 2341.84 -166.14 -6.6 -11.7
S&P 500 1178.81 1123.53 -55.28 -4.7 -10.7
09:22 am Dell initiated with a Sell at Ticonderoga; tgt $9.25: . Ticonderoga initiates DELL with a Sell and price target of $9.25. Despite the transformation of Dell's portfolio that we believe will ultimately have a long-term positive impact on the company, they cannot overlook Dell's high exposure to the public and consumer markets in a period of growing austerity programs and weakening consumer demand. At the same time, they have concerns regarding Dell's surging operating expenses as the co invests in new businesses that they believe will result in incrementally higher operating leverage in a tough environment and could cut more deeply into profits versus the last downturn. Valuation may appear attractive but not with the risks they see.
09:22 am Rubicon Tech initiated with a Sell at Ticonderoga; tgt $9: . Ticonderoga initiates RBCN with a Sell and price target of $9.Rubicon is a leading provider of sapphire wafers serving the LED, RF chip and optoelectronics market. While the co has benefited from excess profits throughout 2010 and 1H11 due to LED wafer supply constraints, current excess inventory and new entrants are accelerating wafer commoditization and eroding margins over the long term for Rubicon. believe with Rubicon's gross margins likely to trend downward towards 30% over time, they believe the stock should be valued at 1.5x Price/FTM Sales for a $9 tgt.
09:22 am Aixtron initiated with a Buy at Ticonderoga: . Ticonderoga initiates AIXG with a Buy. AIXTRON is the current market leader in process equipment primarily serving the LED market. As the current market leader in MOCVD process tools, AIXTRON is poised for strong secular growth as LEDs are expected to have a 25-30% CAGR during the next several years. Given the company's dominant market position in an oligopolistic market, we believe AIXTRON will maintain attractive margins during this high-growth period.
09:21 am Cree initiated with a Buy at Ticonderoga; tgt $39: . Ticonderoga initiates CREE with a Buy and price target of $39. With gross margins appearing to have bottom in the June quarter and pricing pressure subsiding, we believe Cree, along with the LED industry, is in a cyclical recovery driven by improving general lighting demand applications. As both revenue and gross margins recover, they believe Cree should command a 4x Price/FY12 Sales valuation consistent with other historical chip leaders such as QCOM, (cell phone enabler), INTC, (PC enabler) and BRCM (WiFi enabler) when comparing P/S versus gross margin percentage for a $39 tgt.
2:08 pm S&P Tech Sector Trades About Two Percent Lower
The tech sector is trading lower and is the worst performing S&P sector today. Semiconductors are showing relative strength in the tech space, however, with the Philly Semi Index trading 0.3% lower. Among chips in the index, MRVL (+6.4%) is a notable leader, while RBCN (-3.1%) is lagging. Among other major indices, the S&P 500 is trading 0.6% lower, while the NASDAQ is trading 0.6% lower. The QQQ, meanwhile, is trading 0.5% lower. Among tech bellwethers, ORCL (+0.04%) is showing relative strength, while IBM (-2.7%) is under pressure.
In earnings last night, HPQ (-20.1%) reported an inline quarter and guided lower, CRM (-0.7%) and ADSK (-10.5%) posted beats with slightly upside guidance, MRVL (+6.4%) posted an inline quarter and guidance, and INTU (+9.3%) reported a beat with inline guidance.
In news, HPQ (-20.1%) confirmed it will acquire Autonomy and evaluate strategic alternatives for its PSG. In rumors, we are hearing continued M&A interest in IDCC (-1.2%) making the rounds.
Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, RIMM (+4.5%) was upgraded to Hold at Jefferies and Needham upgraded DELL (+2.7%) to Buy. In downgrades, HPQ (-20.1%) was downgraded at a host of firms including Needham and Deutsche Bank.
11:50 am S&P Health Care Sector Outperforming The Broader Market
The Healthcare sector +0.4% is outperforming the weakness in the S&P 500 -0.04%.
News: SGNT +10% launches Vecuronium Bromide for injection, CYTK +3.4% announces Phase I and Phase IIa clinical trial results for Omecamtiv Mecarbil Published in the Journal Lancet, FURX +1.4% enters into loan agreement for up to $15 mln, UTHR +0.8% S.A.C. Capital reports a 3.6% passive stake in the co, ARRY -0.68% BVF Partners reports a 6% stake in the co, and CVM -5.7% announced that it has received and responded to a Warning Letter issued to the Co by the Division of Drug Advertising Marketing and Compliance.
Broker Research: NKTR +3.6% initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners, CERN +1.6%, upgraded at Cowen, SSRX +0.4% initiated iwth an Outperform at Cowen, HLS -0.9% initiated with a Buy at Mizuho.
10:15 am LDK Solar Lowers Revenue Guidance (LDK)
LDK Solar (LDK $5.80 -0.77) lowered its second quarter revenue guidance to $480 million to $500 million, down from $710 million to $760 million versus the $716.40 million Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
With wafer shipments between 1.8 gigawatts (GW) and 2.0 GW, and gross margins between 15% and 20%. The co previously forecasted wafer shipments between 2.7 and 2.9 gigawatts (GW), module shipments between 800 MW and 900 MW, in-house polysilicon production between 10,000 MT and 11,000 MT, in-house cell production between 500 MW and 600 MW and gross margin between 24% and 29%.
For its fiscal year 2011, the company lowered its revenue guidance to $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion from $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion versus the $3 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
The company is expecting wafer shipments between 410 and 430 megawatts (MW). As a result of the significant drop in market price for wafers and modules during the second quarter of 2011, LDK Solar expected to write-down $55 million to $60 million of inventories and expected the gross margin for the second quarter of 2011 to be between 1.5% and 2.5%.The company previously forecasted Q2 wafer shipments between 500 MW and 550 MW, and gross margin between 22% to 26%.
10:03 am Salesforce.com Tops Second Quarter EPS And Revenue Expectations (CRM)
Salesforce.com (CRM $118.51 +4.45) reported second quarter earnings of $0.34 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.30. Non-GAAP results include a one-time charge of $0.04 per diluted share associated with the legal settlement disclosed in the Form 8-K filed on June 15, 2011.
Revenues rose 38.6% year/year to $546 million versus the $528.9 million consensus.
The company issued guidance for the third quarter with EPS of $0.30 to $0.31 versus the $0.31 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and revenues of $568 million to $570 million versus the $556.82 million Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
The company also issued guidance for fiscal year 2012 with EPS of $1.30 to $1.32 versus the $1.32 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and revenues of $2.22 billion to 2.23 billion versus the $2.18 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Russell 2000 697.50 651.69 -45.81 -6.6 -16.8
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