excerpt from an email sent to a market buddy [and relayed by phone to Chart Reader and succesfull money manger friend]
"Almost no one is thinking of MAJOR downside in the market over the next 1-3 years.
There is risk of downside well below the lows of 2009 March, well below SPY upper 600s.
Not a misprint.
That risk, while I can't quantify it in % terms is far greater than what everyone believes.
It is a serious contender among the possible scenarios of the course the market takes. [and by extension, the economy]
This is not based on reading or listening to what anyone else has said _____.
I won't at this point go into all that went into this conclusion and relaying it to you and others.
My reasons are based initially on the chart, but also backed by an economic scenario that would or could allow for that to happen.
No one can guarantee what the future holds.
This outcome is one of the serious contenders.
Long term risk is not currently appreciated by market participants.
Should the market choose this path, it has implications for what kind of economy and social mood we'd be dealing with that would allow for it to occur.
Should the market break above SnP 136, the odds of this outcome diminish significantly. A break below SPY 100 and the odds go up significantly."
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