Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

China will strike after the Olympics. The period of greatest danger will be between the closing ceremonies in Beijing and election day in the US.

The following text answers my question of why everything is moving so fast, why we are racing into this world war with China.

All of what is on this board regarding Uzbekistan, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran – almost every country on this planet - points to an accelerated war effort on Bush’s part. Everything is moving too fast, why?

By 2008 we will be in the throes of the war to end all wars, again. Emergency legislation will very probably be enacted before 2008 declaring martial law and the postponement of elections.
#msg-6573782

Very important to note that what Schulman has said is backed up by the prestigious CFR through Peterson.

Peterson states in the following China will remain peaceful until 2008.

In an essay published recently in Foreign Affairs magazine, Peter G Peterson, secretary of commerce in the Nixon administration prophesised that the US are 'riding for a fall.' More and more analysts feel that one of the consequences of the US decline will see China taking the lead in the world during the 21st century. Hu Jintao and his colleagues in Beijing firmly believe this. The 'peaceful rise of China' means that Beijing will do everything to keep the image of a peaceful nation till China rises to the top in 2008. The date of the Olympics is not just symbolic. It is a long planned programme and the investment in gold medals is only a tiny aspect.
#msg-4196244

-Am


China, Taiwan, and the 2008 Olympics

04/04/2005

The Daily Demarche has asked a number of bloggers to think about the future of Sino-American relations. These are mine:

For the next three years -- until the 2008 Beijing Olympics are history -- I'm not seriously concerned that the Chinese will destabilize South Asia by taking military action against Taiwan. Between now and then, I expect that the regime will continue to focus its efforts on maximizing economic growth. While the exact nature of our military response to an attack on Taiwan is highly uncertain, there's no doubt that our economic response would be to implement trade restrictions that would hurt the Chinese economy.

I view the 2008 Summer Olympics as the Chinese coming-out party. The greater the growth of their economy over the next three years, the more spectacular the party. The regime will want every nation to send its athletes to the games; accordingly, the Chinese will not risk alienating any country -- especially the United States. They certainly remember the consequences of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan at the end of 1979 for the 1980 Moscow Olympics.

In fact, I would not be surprised if the regime were to release some political prisoners and implement other liberalization measures in the months leading up to the Games. There is a precedent for such actions by authoritarian governments: immediately before the 1936 Berlin Olympics, the Nazis removed the "Jews not wanted" signs and other indications of overt anti-Semitism.

Thus, I believe there is a potential parallel to be drawn between 1936 and 2008. After the Beijing Olympics are over, the world will undoubtedly be highly impressed by China's economic strength and the unity of its people. The psychological impact of these impressions will enable the Chinese to exert greater influence on world affairs. Then, the risk of a confrontation with Taiwan will significantly rise.

At the same time, the Bush administration will be in its final months and we will be closing in on the November presidential election. If the Chinese turn up the heat before the votes are cast, the nature of the American response will be debated by the candidates. Depending on public opinion, it might be very difficult for Bush to respond in a decisive manner (as I'm sure he would want to), as going to war (or something just short of war) could undermine support for the Republican candidate. For this reason, I conclude that the period of greatest danger will be between the closing ceremonies in Beijing and election day in the US. The political constraints on the US will be lessened after the votes are counted.
Posted by Marc Schulman on 04/04/2005 at 01:26 / Permalink


http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:x1GTVAKXcU4J:americanfuture.typepad.com/american_future/2005/04/c....




Sunday, April 03, 2005
The Straight Crisis
Marc Schulman at American Future addresses a question asked by the bloggers at Daily Demarche, concerning Chinese-American relations. A small excerpt:

Thus, I believe there is a potential parallel to be drawn between 1936 and 2008. After the Beijing Olympics are over, the world will undoubtedly be highly impressed by China's economic strength and the unity of its people. The psychological impact of these impressions will enable the Chinese to exert greater influence on world affairs. Then, the risk of a confrontation with Taiwan will significantly rise.
(Read the rest to understand his basis for this, as well as other worries)

His sentiments echo mine. China will wait until after the Olympics before striking. It wants them to succeed. While a strike beforehand might help guarantee surprise, it would also generate world wide hostility to China. Of course, Chinese leaders might consider a conquered Taiwan to be worth that, and could feel the morale boost would more than offset a major Olympics breakdown. But China is going to need international support in order to keep its economic growth going, and to rebuild Taiwan and bring it to heel. After the Olympics is the worrying point. The nationalist sentiment will be high, and support for an attack among the Chinese people would likely also be high. Attacking then would allow the CCP to operate from a position of strength, both domestically and internationally.

http://historysend.blogspot.com/2005/04/straight-crisis.html