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Sunday, August 07, 2011 5:35:41 PM
Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (8/6/11)
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_6_11.htm
Volatility has reverted back to the late 2007-2008 time period with large intra day moves occurring. The S&P 500 has followed through to the downside after breaking below its Neckline (black line) in association with a Head and Shoulders Top pattern. Meanwhile remember back in 2010 we also had a potential Head and Shoulders Top pattern but it ended up having a failed breakout after finding support at the 1011 level. The recent Head and Shoulders Top pattern looks like the real deal and I think it's unlikely a big upside reversal to new highs will occur like last time.
Meanwhile the move down from the 2nd Shoulder appears to be evolving into a 5 Wave affair and Friday's bounce is likely Wave 4 which would be followed by the final 5th Wave to complete the first larger Wave #1 down. The target for the 5th Wave would be probably in the 1150's with 1148 the 61.8% Retracement Level calculated from the July 2010 low of 1011 to the April high of 1371. It's certainly possible all of this will complete by next week followed by an even stronger relief rally from mid August through mid September as an "abc" type Wave #2 occurs with a potential back test of the Neckline.
Meanwhile the Volatility Index (VIX) made an explosive move this week and once again when the 16 level has been breached (points A) market corrections of varying magnitudes have followed since 2007 (points B to C).
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Aug_6_11.htm
Volatility has reverted back to the late 2007-2008 time period with large intra day moves occurring. The S&P 500 has followed through to the downside after breaking below its Neckline (black line) in association with a Head and Shoulders Top pattern. Meanwhile remember back in 2010 we also had a potential Head and Shoulders Top pattern but it ended up having a failed breakout after finding support at the 1011 level. The recent Head and Shoulders Top pattern looks like the real deal and I think it's unlikely a big upside reversal to new highs will occur like last time.
Meanwhile the move down from the 2nd Shoulder appears to be evolving into a 5 Wave affair and Friday's bounce is likely Wave 4 which would be followed by the final 5th Wave to complete the first larger Wave #1 down. The target for the 5th Wave would be probably in the 1150's with 1148 the 61.8% Retracement Level calculated from the July 2010 low of 1011 to the April high of 1371. It's certainly possible all of this will complete by next week followed by an even stronger relief rally from mid August through mid September as an "abc" type Wave #2 occurs with a potential back test of the Neckline.
Meanwhile the Volatility Index (VIX) made an explosive move this week and once again when the 16 level has been breached (points A) market corrections of varying magnitudes have followed since 2007 (points B to C).
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