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Re: Double_Bagel post# 124587

Friday, 08/05/2011 8:08:38 PM

Friday, August 05, 2011 8:08:38 PM

Post# of 257310
Re: MNTA royalty case:

How do you get loss of 30-35 cents? Can you show us the math behind this?



There are lots of assumptions. But here are two that I have significantly different:

- I expect a 4-way split upon tL launch with an AG launch;
- With a 4-way, expect a smaller total market due to price competition effect.

Perversely, if SNY is able to hold on to the hospital market via contracts/bundling, it could be even worse. However, that is NOT what I expect or model.

ij

It is astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone ... where it is often impossible to bring one's ideas to a conclusive test either formal or experimental. J.M. Keynes

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