Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

America's China problem
By Jing-dong Yuan

Jun 7, 2005

China is increasingly the focal point of American policymakers and strategic analysts. Despite former secretary of state Colin Powell's rather upbeat assessment last summer of the bilateral relationship between the two countries as being the best since president Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China, the second George W Bush administration is constantly echoing congressional sentiments about the China problem, despite its avowed commitment to maintain a candid, cooperative and constructive relationship with Asia's rising power.

As seen in Washington, the China problem is manifested in several areas in which the two countries are increasingly at odds. Leading the pack is what US policymakers consider to be Beijing's deliberate attempt to keep the Chinese currency undervalued. Pegged to the US dollar since 1994, the undervalued yuan is blamed as an important contributor to America's economic ills: growing trade deficits and the loss of jobs.

Increasingly, American policymakers are also worried about China's growing power and expansion of influence at the US's expense. The soon-to-be released Pentagon report on China's military power once again characterizes China as a strategic competitor. Beijing is seen actively pursuing a regional agenda aimed at excluding Washington, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the forthcoming East Asian summit toward the end of this year. Beijing is seen as more assertive in East Asia, as evidenced by the passage of the anti-succession law, which could see the US involved in military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

In addition, China is also building relationships and consolidating ties in two regions of US negligence, Africa and the US's traditional sphere of influence, Latin America. Indeed, there are warnings that America's "war on terrorism" and its entanglement in Afghanistan and Iraq has allowed the unimpeded rise of Chinese power, which eventually will challenge American interests regionally and globally.

China is a growing and significant consumer of many resources. Its appetite for energy and the needs for feeding 1.3 billion people are bound to drive up prices and lead to fierce competition for limited deposits, reserves and supplies critical for sustained economic growth and comfortable lifestyles. Chinese companies are buying stakes and establishing partnerships in Africa, Central Asia, Latin America and even Canada.

Even where the two countries could actually show their cooperation, Washington is becoming impatient with Beijing's rather weak handling of the North Korean nuclear issue. With the kind of economic leverage that China now has, the US has been expecting Beijing to apply greater pressure - including reducing or even cutting off key supplies - on its wayward client to bring the North back to the six-party talks, a multilateral arrangement aimed at defusing and eventually resolving the peninsula's nuclear impasse.

The above descriptions are rather alarming to some. But they could also be misleading, by either exaggerating or distorting the realities. The Chinese currency is undervalued. But America's economic ills won't go away without it addressing some of its fundamental and structural problems, including lower saving rates. Chinese exports could well be replaced by lower-wage countries, just as China replaced the East Asian "little tigers" a decade ago.

Beijing's good-neighbor diplomacy, including the promotion of multilateral security institutions, is largely driven by its interests in dispelling "China threat" concerns and developing stable environments for economic growth. While it is true that China hopes these arrangements offer alternatives to US bilateral military alliances, it would be an exaggeration to argue that Beijing is deliberately challenging and balancing against US interests. Except for the Taiwan issue, Chinese anti-hegemony rhetoric is just that, and no more. China is not the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

China's drive for energy security only highlights its vulnerability, not its "insidious designs". Given the size of its population, rate of economic growth and domestic energy production, it is only natural that Beijing has an inherent interest in seeking to secure energy supplies and diversification. It would be strange and indeed irresponsible if it did otherwise. America's interest may be better served in assisting China to improve its energy efficiency and preservation, and in developing a partnership to deal with growing energy demands.

China's approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis is a reflection of its security policy, which balances stability, nuclear proliferation and its relationships with key powers in the region, including the one with Pyongyang. Beijing has less leverage than presumed, does not believe the validity of sanctions, and cannot understand why Washington refuses even to talk to Pyongyang

China is rising. That much is acknowledged and accepted. But must China be a problem? To borrow a famous line by an international relations scholar, anarchy is what states make of it; one can argue that Washington could make China a problem, and then formulate its policy accordingly.

But China is also an opportunity. A prosperous, responsible China playing a positive role in dealing with global and regional problems is what Washington should welcome and encourage. Make China a partner in peace, prosperity and responsibility. That would serve America's fundamental interests and those of the region and the world at large.

Dr Jing-dong Yuan is research director for East Asia Non-Proliferation, Center for Non-Proliferation Studies and associate professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.



http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF07Ad02.html