Its just one of possible scenarios, though at this point it seems most likely.
I agree, the excess liquidity was pressuring commodities prices all alnog. Toghether with the falling dollar. Now the dolar is rising because of external circumstances. Its actually Euro falling, not the dollar rising.
But the dollar is still losing the trade against commodities. Paper money vs Real things.
Fed has been pumping agressively all along. Liquidity that is coming now from Europe only adds to the pressure and might put it over the top. that was my point.