Biotech Values

[NP1986]

The earlier article was a little more balanced, as it did point out that median survival in the control arm may be longer than 20 months, which is one of the assumptions used when Merck designed the trial.

The main concern for me is that even if Stimuvax works, the difference may be more modest than in the phase IIb study and the trial will not be sufficiently powered to show a significant difference.

I don't care too much about what happens in the short term with ONTY's share price. Ultimately, it all depends on the outcome of the START trial and that will move the stock substantially more than any of these amateurish articles.

I wouldn't advise a position in ONTY to anyone who cannot afford to lose most of their investment. Beyond Stimuvax, I see very little upside for this stock in the foreseeable future if the trial fails. On the other hand, with a positive outcome, ONTY's valuation would be based on more than just anticipated royalties from Stimuvax use in NSCLC. There is potential in several other tumor types, and ONTY fully owns its follow-on MUC1 vaccine. Shkreli claims that a best case scenario would only see ONTY doubling in value, but I can see it tripling in value.