Biotech Values

[iwfal]

A median OST of 33 months is a bit of stretch, 25-month maybe more realistic.

I, another reputable board statistician, AND the statistician hired by the bulls have all come up with about the same range for the blended MST at the time of the first interim based upon the enrollment curve - somewhere between 32 mo and 38 months or so. So I think this is very reliable.

If I am not mistaken the START trial already passed a futility at the first interim analysis, so the chance of success has got to be better than 5%.

???

a) A typical Futility Test is to halt the trial if the power is under 20 (or 25 or some equally low power) percent assuming the same ASSUMED HR that was used in the original powering assumption. That means at 50% info fraction a trial won't be halted for futility unless it is actually has a neutral HR (1.00) or is actually the wrong way.

b) therefore if the drug is worthless it has a 50/50 chance of passing the futility test - and thenceforth still has only around a 2.5% chance of being stat sig.