AI
Friday, July 15, 2011 7:52:48 AM
GURE Doesnt get any easier to make money than this.......simple math...bromine has more than doubled in price and Q2 is historically the strongest for GURE....stock has been attacked by shorts and now the party is over....run back to $6+++ has begun...
Projected bromine revenue in Q2 9-Jul-11 09:24 am
Bromine revenue accounts for at least 2/3 of GURE's total revenue . It's therefore important to "get a handle" on bromine revenue if we want to come up with reasonable forecasts of quarterly and annual revenue. Although bromine prices may vary strongly from year to year and have gone through the roof since late 2010, increasing from about $2000-$2700/ton in the spring of 2010 to $4596/ton in the most recent quarter, bromine production is expected to remain fairly steady and varies mainly due to seasonal/quarterly variations in demand. It is generally expected that quarterly productions will be slightly below last year' numbers due to the higher bromine prices but mgmt expects demand to remain high this year and outstrip supply, creating an opportunity for sizable revenue increases for GURE.
Bromine production in Q1'11 was reported to be 6% less than Q1'10 although revenue increased 77% yoy. If we apply the same decrease of 6% to Q2'11 production as compared to Q2'10 production of 11,045 tons (see quote below), we may thus expect bromine sales to generate about :
11045 x 0.94 x 4596 = $47.7M
in Q2'11 based on same prices as last quarter. That's an increase of 54% vs. Q2'10 bromine rev of $30.9M.
Assuming again that bromine rev will be approx 2/3 of total rev, I think we can expect Q2 revenue to come in at about $71M, up a whole $26M compared to Q1's rev of $45.4M. On the low side, esp. if salt and chemicals revenues are weaker than expected, I expect Q2 revenue to come in at about 6 to 7% less, or $64M to $66M.
Just throwing in my 2 c of DD.
From the 10Q report of last year Q2:
"The average selling price of bromine increased from $1,669 per tonne for the three months ended June 30, 2009 to $2,801 per tonne for the same period in 2010, an increase of 67.8%. The sales volume of bromine slightly increased from 10,895 tonnes for the three months ended June 30, 2009 to 11,045 tonnes for the same period in 2010".
Projected bromine revenue in Q2 9-Jul-11 09:24 am
Bromine revenue accounts for at least 2/3 of GURE's total revenue . It's therefore important to "get a handle" on bromine revenue if we want to come up with reasonable forecasts of quarterly and annual revenue. Although bromine prices may vary strongly from year to year and have gone through the roof since late 2010, increasing from about $2000-$2700/ton in the spring of 2010 to $4596/ton in the most recent quarter, bromine production is expected to remain fairly steady and varies mainly due to seasonal/quarterly variations in demand. It is generally expected that quarterly productions will be slightly below last year' numbers due to the higher bromine prices but mgmt expects demand to remain high this year and outstrip supply, creating an opportunity for sizable revenue increases for GURE.
Bromine production in Q1'11 was reported to be 6% less than Q1'10 although revenue increased 77% yoy. If we apply the same decrease of 6% to Q2'11 production as compared to Q2'10 production of 11,045 tons (see quote below), we may thus expect bromine sales to generate about :
11045 x 0.94 x 4596 = $47.7M
in Q2'11 based on same prices as last quarter. That's an increase of 54% vs. Q2'10 bromine rev of $30.9M.
Assuming again that bromine rev will be approx 2/3 of total rev, I think we can expect Q2 revenue to come in at about $71M, up a whole $26M compared to Q1's rev of $45.4M. On the low side, esp. if salt and chemicals revenues are weaker than expected, I expect Q2 revenue to come in at about 6 to 7% less, or $64M to $66M.
Just throwing in my 2 c of DD.
From the 10Q report of last year Q2:
"The average selling price of bromine increased from $1,669 per tonne for the three months ended June 30, 2009 to $2,801 per tonne for the same period in 2010, an increase of 67.8%. The sales volume of bromine slightly increased from 10,895 tonnes for the three months ended June 30, 2009 to 11,045 tonnes for the same period in 2010".
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