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Re: DewDiligence post# 123184

Monday, 07/11/2011 8:08:16 PM

Monday, July 11, 2011 8:08:16 PM

Post# of 257275

Evidently, ACH-2928 is just a “placeholder” to pique investor interest until the successor compound is ready. Not bullish, IMO.

Agreed. I still think 1625 is the key to the ACHN story, given how much further along it is than everything else in the pipeline. On that note, I'd say the one big development that would potentially cause me to turn bearish on 1625 and ACHN as a whole, aside from any specific clinical issues with 1625, would be if someone like BMY or JNJ were to acquire VRUS thereby potentially limiting ACHN's access to use one of the VRUS nukes in combo with 1625. (I would assume that BMY would intend to solely use their NS5A inhibitor or JNJ would intend to use TMC435 exclusively in conjunction with the VRUS nukes in such a scenario or otherwise would be in a strong competitive position to limit the economics to ACHN in such a scenario even if 1625 were used in conjunction in some type of licensing arrangement. ACHN potentially might need some hiccup from the BMY NS5A inhibitor or TMC435 in such a scenario so that there would be a need for BMY or JNJ to do a licensing deal with ACHN.) Do you agree with that?

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