A coin flip? A 50/50? I don't see that at all. Why do you hold such an opinion?
I see a company with a novel drug delivery system with their first drug using this system showing great efficacy in a number of phase 3 studies. While it is true that this drug received a CRL in its first submission to the FDA, ALXA worked diligently to resolve these safety (pulmonary) issues.
I think your post was more suited for a penny stock with no support, management, or a proven track record. Please provide more facts and reasoning why you hold your opinions instead of just generalizations.