SPRD- Whether Carson Block is a "smart" analyst or not is still to be proven, imo. Just because stocks have reacted to his notes, do not make him "smart" like it did not make Henry Blodget smart on his internet company calls, even though those stocks reacted violently to his price target raises. In hind sight Blodget's valuation analysis was way off. He, similar to MW found himself in a space where potential was large (mkt size for internet vs. large number of accounting errors in chinese companies) and thus emotions prevailed over rationality, in hind sight. People made fortunes levering up and buying and selling houses in 2000-2007, they were considered geniuses then and not so smart now. In each case (internet and real estate bubbles), people with good timing walked away with fortunes but most got hurt. My personal view is that their is a reverse bubble in many chinese names and shorts who continue to press their bets will suffer a similar fate. The fraud thesis against Tre.to, SPRD, ONP, are still to be vetted. DGW and RINO were flagged as frauds long before MW came on the scene and I found his analysis of CCME, particularly his price targets to lack intellectual rigor. I chose to be out of CCME for reasons quite distinct from his analysis. Whether MW has legs as a respected analyst will be determined in a year or two, imo.
Having said that, I would rather be lucky than smart any day! and I am sure MW has made many multiples of profits compared to me in this space. I just don't let my investment decisions be influenced much by his analysis.
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