Biotech Values

[mcbio]

BIOD/HALO—I’m modestly bearish on the various fast-acting insulin programs. I posted the following three years ago (#msg-32024599) and my view hasn’t changed much:

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The various insulin analogs (what Novo-Nordisk calls “modern insulins”) are steadily gaining market share at the expense of ordinary insulin. A tweaked formulation of ordinary insulin, even if it works, is not exactly a winning business idea, IMO.

Thanks for the comments. Clearly lots of issues for BIOD in the prior Phase 3 trials, which is presumably why the stock is sub-$100M market cap. I would think there could be a role for these ultra-fast acting insulins compared to the fast acting insulins such as Humalog, if it is demonstrated in clinical trials that the ultra-fast acting insulins work even quicker than the fast acting insulins to the degree that there is a material reduction in hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. That seems to be the rationale for these ultra-fast acting insulins. Whether or not this will be proven in clinical trials remains to be seen of course.

BIOD claims that its two new ultra-fast acting insulins work better than the prior Linjeta formulation (based on pre-clinical work) and they will be comparing these directly to Humalog in clinical trials, including the ongoing Phase 1 trials. So, we should get an answer to whether or not there is any benefit of the ultra-fast acting insulins over the fast acting insulins, and the degree of any such benefit, in due time.