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Re: Sherlock356 post# 60128

Monday, 12/30/2002 8:05:30 PM

Monday, December 30, 2002 8:05:30 PM

Post# of 704041
Right now, the S&P 500 earnings yield is 3-times the short term treasury yield, which is the highest going back 20 years. [This means stocks are cheap relative to bonds.

Just out of curiosity, what if you looked at the actual difference between the earnings yield and short term treasury yield instead of the percentage? How does that compare to 1982? Also, note that the yield curve is quite steep right now. If the economy gets over the hump and shows that we are escaping another recession, the short term yield could go up a percentage point quite easily. How would that effect your numbers?

Sorry to post questions rather than answering yours, but I don't have the data you are looking at readily available.

Tom




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