I have done a lot of work on TPi over the last couple of months, including speaking to an associate who knew theTPI CEO from his Kelun Pharma day, where as CEO he built the Company into the world's largest provider of intravenous solutions with over $1bn in sales. I am very bullish on their new plant to produce the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) for macrolide antibiotics. As I have indicated before, I have not pulled the trigger due to overhang issues but probably will at some point. I have not done the same level of work and do not have the same level of confidence in the success prospects of CNTF's technology. Although, I do believe CNTF to be quite undervalued.
My outlook is based on the fraud overhang dissipating over the next year and 2011 audits. My multiples are not "too optimistic", imo. At least two people I know who work for PE shops in Hong Kong are actively scouring the busted US listed Chinese stock space and the multiples I used would be considered very attractive by them. But we can agree to disagree on that front.
I have been nibbling on my holdings, CCCL, EDS and sokf as they have trended down, but I have also been short names like LFT, SCEI, QIHU, LONG, VIT, MOBI, XRS, YOKU that I have indicated in previous posts and a couple of others that I have not, giving me a net short exposure. I pressed those bets as they broke support until today when I covered most except, QIHU and VIT, LFT is still halted.
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