Your set of probabilities in #msg-64399885 yields an 84% probability* of success for NVS/MNTA in the patent case per se (i.e. an 84% chance of succeeding on one or more arguments).
*Calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each argument’s failing and subtracting that product from 100%.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”