Zeev,
My data shows a DOW breakdown (a'la William O'Neill) on 12/17 and a 12/18 breakdown on the S&P 500 and S&P 600. Distribution has improved since then on the S&P 600, but the DOW and S&P 500 still have 6 distribution days in the last 3 weeks. The NASDAQ is holding on pretty well with only 3 distribution days, 2 of which were minor.
The distribution is not as convincing, since volume has been small, but I have noticed that the last few bear market rallies have given the same sort of weak volume breakdowns.
Could it be that only the NASDAQ plays in your early January ramp, or could the turnips' expected "ramp" only consist of the NASDAQ holding its own a little while longer before joining the DOW and S&P in a swoon?
Also, what was the "last chance" for your "narrowing window" of a ramp from here?
Thanks,
-David