Biotech Values

[oc631]

and how proactive governments are with HCV diagnostic screening [glad I'm not a analyst] are other factors.

It's in VRTX/MRK's best interest diagnose/treat as many GT1 patients as possible before an all-oral drug hits the market. In the U.S. there are an estimated 2.5M undiagnosed HCV patients and in Europe 1.8M.

23% of the patients in the U.S. and 34% of the patients in Europe are GT2-6 and are eligible for diagnosis in theory. This means in VRTX/MRK's quest to diagnose GT1 HCV patients in developed markets there will be a building pool of GT2-6 patients in which won't be treated with tela/boceprevir due to the limitations of these drugs.

This leaves 897,000 patients in the U.S. and 612,000 patients in Europe in need of a pangenotypic drug. I can't determine the size of the GT1 patient pool by the time PSI-7977 is approved but there is an estimated 45B dollar market in the U.S. and 30B dollar market in Europe that VRTX/MRK can't touch. They can, and will, diagnose these GT2-6 patients in their quest for GT1's which is a gift to the first developer with a pangenotypic drug.