Biotech Values

[investorgold2002]

sorry in my style of investing, I don't assign probabilities. No offense to anybody. I simply think that is ANAL-yst way of doing things. for example, when I invested in healthsouth

I reconstructed the EBIDTA based of public SEC complaint and based on news in some birmingham newspaper of incumbent CEO stating the company is making $1million in operating cashflow(strong business) a day
the ceo also in the same paper(i believe) had said they would need approx 600 million in ebidta to ward off chapter 11...i also knew how disruptive and complicated a bankruptcy event would be for this company that at the time had facilities in all the states in the country...i also knew how easy it would be raise capital / financing, say if they hit 500$ million EBIDTA mark...also the vibe at the IR was optimistic...the company announced they were meeting with creditors every thursday and that creditors are cooperating...keep in mind they had defaulted on principal bond payment that was due...ultimately i believed that the creditors would be cured by a payment...also, i knew the new interim chairman would do everything to protect equity..the guy and his family had a few million shares riding...
the reuter and mainstream news was healthsouth in huge accounting fraud and will file chapter 11....but when u sift through the details and look at it objectively and use your intuition u would come to a diff conclusion...


I never assigned any probability of healthsouth filing chapter 11. when you make an investment like this, you obviously should be prepared for the remote possibility of losing everything...which i was....but i knew it was very likely the equity would be protected