Biotech Values

[oc631]

I'm confident there will be plenty of room and opportunity for a QD 2nd gen HCV PI down the road.

I took a quick refresher on ACHN and I came away feeling that the unusual design of the of the phase 1 GT1/GT3 study in ACH-2864 is a result of ACH-1625 not working in GT3. IMO their focus was on activity in GT3 when they designed 2864 and they are anxious to prove it. I can understand the need for a small bio like ACHN to differentiate itself from others in the space and results in the clinic will be the ultimate test of whether the drug is pan-genotypic.



An important question to ask is what will be the backbone in oral HCV therapy by the time ACH-2864 reaches the market. If ACH-2864 is being developed specifically to pair with their NS5A in a DAA combo well hasn't that been tried before? The result there for BMY is the awkward quadruple therapy defaulting back on existing SOC (or Interferon Lamda) to boost the resistance profile of the original two drug combo. A nucleotide analog is needed to be a player in the all oral space. The value of VRUS beyond current treatment is the fact their dual nuke combo (if approved) won't need the help of other classes of drugs for the majority of patients throughout the world to reach a clinical cure. I foresee uses of other classes of drugs in response guided therapy for non-responders, layered on top of PSI-7977/938, just as it's done today with existing SOC. The triple combo/combos will also be used in nulls and will represent a small part of the overall market.