AI
Wednesday, May 25, 2011 1:29:07 PM
Updated: Wed May 25 16:27:10 UTC 2011
Categorical Day 1 1630Z Outlook
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Forecast Discussion
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html [use this link for later Day 1 Outlooks, available at 3p and 8p CDT]SPC AC 251623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...WEST TN...SOUTHEAST
MO...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SOUTHERN IND...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN MS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN LA INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. A LARGE BAND OF 70+ KNOT
WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCH FROM OK/TX INTO IL/KY/TN THIS
MORNING...ACROSS A LARGE/MOIST WARM SECTOR. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN MO/AR
EASTWARD TO EASTERN KY AND NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IND. THE RESULT
WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING LONG-DURATION
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES.
MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY. BROKEN CLOUDS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA...ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
TCU AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MO/AR. THE 15Z SGF RAOB SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT
TORNADOES. ONCE THESE STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED...THEY MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.
FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AR/SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...SPREADING INTO WEST TN AND
SOUTHERN IND. 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LONG
HODOGRAPHS AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF MULTIPLE
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
DURING THE EVENING...MULTIPLE LINES/CLUSTERS OF INTENSE/SUPERCELL
STORMS AND BOWS MAY BE TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA POTENTIALLY AFFECTED
BY SEVERE STORMS TODAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ALSO A PROMINENT CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL
JET...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS
AREA...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
=====
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 370
Current Radar [refresh this post for latest]
Current Warnings [refresh this post for latest]
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0370.htmlSEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF FARMINGTON
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW 369...
DISCUSSION...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES --SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED-- IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF SUPERCELLS. THE COMBINATION
OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A BROAD...MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-3500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH 50-60
KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...RESULTING
IN A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
=====
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 371
Current Radar [refresh this post for latest]
Current Warnings [refresh this post for latest]
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0371.htmlSEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES
INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE
ROCK ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW
369...WW 370...
DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS
AR. HERE...AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
2500 J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
AND 40-50 KT LLJ...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR
MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO
VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...MEAD
---
Mesoscale Discussion 955
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0955.htmlMESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251652Z - 251815Z
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND
CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM
DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH
RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN
CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER
PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A
BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
=====
Public Severe Weather Outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.htmlZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 251726
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-260200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...MAJOR TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...MID
MISSISSIPPI...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM LOUSIANA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
THE STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S TORNADO OUTBREAK IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
MISSOURI LATER TODAY AND INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO
NEAR ST LOUIS.
WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL UNDERCUT A BAND OF FAST...COOL...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM
FLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER A LARGE AREA OF
MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
MO...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LONG-LIVED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FAST-MOVING AND
POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS
EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND... HAIL...AND
TORNADOES SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 05/25/2011
$$
=====
Current Convective Watches
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
---
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
=====
this is a yet another real good day to get in touch with family and friends in the high/moderate risk areas and relay the message to stay informed on the latest watches and warnings today into tonight, and to just get straight to good shelter, no dawdling, if in particular a tornado warning is issued
Greensburg, KS - 5/4/07
"Eternal vigilance is the price of Liberty."
from John Philpot Curran, Speech
upon the Right of Election, 1790
F6
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