Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

Mesoscale Discussion 925

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
    1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 
     
    AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK 
     
    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY  
     
    VALID 241718Z - 241845Z 
     
    STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT 
    HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL 
    AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z. 
     
     
    SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A 
    DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX. 
    THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE 
    IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK 
    SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION 
    OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS 
    EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65 
    KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE 
    STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS 
    STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER 
    WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN 
    PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE 
    STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR 
    TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE 
    450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO 
    OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. 
     
    ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011 
     
     
    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 
     
    LAT...LON   36359864 35549906 34789972 34469989 33560003 32959970 
                32809942 32789855 33159793 33799761 34609702 35689660 
                36409722 36629823 36359864

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0925.html [via "Current Mesoscale Discussions", http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ ] [this will be a PDS ("Particularly Dangerous Situation") Tornado Watch]


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Current Convective Watches
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

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Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/


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and to repeat again -- this is a real good day to get in touch with family and friends in the high/moderate risk areas and relay the message to stay informed on the latest watches and warnings today into tonight, and to just get straight to good shelter, no dawdling, if in particular a tornado warning is issued

(I'll be catching a nap the next coupla hours)