Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ajtj99]

Zeev, you might have more to worry about than 1347 COMP.

we CLOSED below the 50SMA on the COMP. That's huge!
Look at this chart last January when that happened and the 50SMA was acting similarly:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[g,a]da...

We dropped below the lower BB, then rose up to touch the 50SMA before dropping again to a much lower level.

In April-August 2001 we closed above the 50SMA for only 2-days after we closed below it in mid-June, and the result was similar.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[g,a]da...

If you look at the 2002 chart, you'll notice between mid-January and mid-August there were only 2-days we closed above the 50SMA after the initial close below. Those were both tops after significant re-traces.

If you include the 6-days in August we were over the 50SMA, that's a total of 8-days over the 50SMA over a period of 10-months after the initial close below.

That's something to think about as people look for the Santa /New Years rally. The daily charts may look like they're at bottom, but the weekly charts still have a ways to go, and the monthly charts are just starting to turn down again.

Amongst other signals we've had recently, this one is also huge.

Look what happened in Sept. 2000 when we closed below the 50SMA:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[g,a]da...

From looking at this tonight, I have a couple of observations -watch for a drop to slightly below the lower BB on the COMP (currently at 1334), and watch for a rise to test the 50SMA (currently at 1366), and then watch for the bottom to possibly fall out over the next 3-months.

That has been the pattern, and this bear has been pretty good at repeating patterns.