Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[10nisman]

"We estimate m-enox MNTA profit share run rate at ~ $60MM until Tevanox is launched. We think Q1/11 strength was due to stocking by two new suppliers. We still think TEVA’s generic Lovenox may be approved in 2011."

Based on the above, Can-a-corn believes two new suppliers accounted for approximately $50 million in overstocking in Q1. I'm sure there was stocking but $50 million seems a bit ridiculous.

First,the MNTA profit share is more like $78-80 million on an ongoing basis, not $60 million.

I'm estimating conservatively that $20-25 million was overstocking and Momenta will have between $65-70 million in Q2 mL profit share and EPS of $0.85-1.00/share.

By the way, UBS says approval of T-Enox will come in July 2011.

When tL is nowhere to be found come this summer a number of analysts will need to revise their estimates and expectations upwards for 2011 and 2012.