Friday, May 06, 2011 12:21:50 PM
Now what we have here is different personal opinions on the facts.
On the surface, Sandoz/Mnta seemed reluctant to increase mkt share/penetration of Lovenox, citing production constraints.
Well, if it is truly production constraint then if Sandoz wishes to increase production then it has to build more capacity period.
I am with you in interpreting this as a signal to SNY that Sandoz is not interested in eating all of SNY lunch when it comes to Lovenox, or at least to the point where SNY feels it has to retaliate by offering a branded generic.
At the current level of mkt share, Sandoz/Mnta probably feel that it is reaching the limits thereof where a duopoly will be stabilized and yet there is still plenty of profits to go around for Sandoz/Mnta.
On the other hand, if I were to really believe that the reason Sandoz/Mnta is reluctant to invest additional capital because ofimminent t-enox approval thus wasting that capital , then the logical thing for me is to sell, may be not all my stake, but I would seriously trim my stake down proportionately to my estimated probability of that event happening.
Ask him if he sold. If he hasn't , then I would move on and pay no attention.
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