Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

China chills hope of talks with Chen

By Chris Buckley International Herald Tribune

WEDNESDAY, MAY 4, 2005


BEIJING China capped its jubilant reception of the chairman of Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party, Lien Chan, with praise for him on Tuesday and an offer of two rare giant pandas as gifts to Taiwan as he prepared to return to Taipei.


But even as Lien was leaving, Chinese officials cooled hopes of a similar meeting with Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, by placing conditions on such a session that observers said Chen's governing Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, is likely to find unacceptable.

The pandas - a seemingly unrefusable sentimental gift that China has previously reserved for heads of state on crucial visits - were "a symbol of peace and unity" between the two sides, Wang Zaixi, the deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party's Taiwan Work Office, said at a news briefing. Lien's visit was "a complete success," he said, calling it a "landmark event" in relations between China and Taiwan.

Lien's departure from Shanghai was the climactic flourish of what Chinese analysts have called China's "soft offensive" to win over Taiwanese public opinion. China hopes to use Lien's eight-day tour, along with an eight-day visit by another Taiwanese opposition leader, James Soong, starting on Thursday, to regain the initiative in cross-strait relations after years of largely fruitless verbal jousting, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at the People's University in Beijing.

"The mainland's soft offensive has been quite effective," said Shi. "It may force Chen to take action, even action the DPP is unwilling to take."

Indeed, Chen offered Monday to hold talks with Beijing, apparently responding to the tide of public opinion and international pressure evoked by Lien's meeting with China's president, Hu Jintao, last Friday, and also said he would ask Soong to take a "secret message" to Beijing. On Tuesday, Chen also invited Hu to visit Taiwan.

Wang said China would consider a visit from the Democratic Progressive Party but that it would first have to meet several conditions, including abandoning the party's constitution and officially "accepting" that Taiwan is a part of China. Chen, who rose to power as a pro-independence activist and has been skeptical of recent peaceful overtures from Beijing, is unlikely to embrace those conditions.

"So long as the DPP recognizes the 1992 consensus, gives up its Taiwan independence party constitution and stops its separatist activities aimed at Taiwan independence, we would welcome its visit to the mainland," Wang said. The 1992 consensus is China's shorthand for an opaque formula China and Taiwan agreed on that year as the basis for talks held in Singapore in 1993. It refers to both sides' accepting "one China," but allows each to have its own "interpretation" of what that means.

The Democratic Progressive Party does not accept the very idea of a 1992 consensus and refuses to accept it as the basis for talks, Cheng Wen-tsan, a spokesman for the party, said in response to Wang's remarks. "We can't recognize something that doesn't exist," he said in a telephone interview from Taipei, adding that the "consensus" masks basic "misconceptions" about Taiwan's status.

"The 'one-China' principle negates Taiwan's sovereignty and denies the legitimacy of the Republic of China," he said, referring to the official name for Taiwan's government. Chen has said the "one China" claim can be a "topic for discussion between the two sides, but not a precondition for those discussions," Zheng said. "China's demands are just unreasonable."

But while Lien's tour and the prospect of giant pandas in a Taipei zoo seem likely to stir ripples in Taiwanese public opinion, the latest comments from Beijing suggest there is little hope of the Chinese and Taiwanese governments' talking over their fundamental disagreements soon, analysts said.

"It's nearly impossible for Chen Shui-bian and the DPP to accept the '92 consensus," said Pan Hsi-tang, an expert on China-Taiwan relations at Tamkang University in Taipei. "If Chen and the Taiwan government were to accept it, the DPP's supporters would denounce Chen as a traitor to Taiwan."

Chen may ask Soong to explore the possibility of a vaguer formula that built on the two sides' previous positions, said Pan. But the mainland is unlikely to accept any further vagueness, making breaking the stalemate very difficult.

China has used Lien's visit, and its accompanying promises of economic and political rewards to the Nationalist Party for supporting reconciliation with China, to more directly influence Taiwan's electoral politics, especially in the lead-up to Taiwan's May 14 vote for a Legislative Assembly that will consider changing its Constitution, said analysts.

"Taiwanese politics is very complex, and this strategy carries some risks," said Shi, the Beijing-based analyst, "but at least for the time being the opposition parties are looking stronger, and this successful visit will give them a boost."

But China's partisan strategy risks making its Taiwan policy a hostage to Taiwan's unpredictable electoral politics, some politicians said.

Lien's visit has also served to highlight how Hu dominates his government's policy towards Taiwan. Until recently, Hu has avoided specific comments about Taiwan, but when Lien and 30 Nationalist officials entered the Great Hall of the People - China's Parliament building - they were greeted not by the full complement of China's central leadership but by Hu alone.

"Without a doubt, the Chinese government wanted to show that Hu Jintao, and only Hu Jintao, is the final decision-maker of China's Taiwan policy," said Shi.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/03/news/taiwan.php