Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Let's look at the world say 10 years from now - that pretty much restricts the universe of drugs to those that are already in the clinic or late-stage preclinical. So how many HCV drugs will have substantial (>$500m) sales? I'd guess less than half-a-dozen - perhaps only three or four. (But HCV is really not my space, so I will defer on this to the experts here).

I'm certainly no HCV expert either. But, in 10 years, I would expect that the 1st gen PIs like telaprevir and boceprevir will in large part have been replaced by the 2nd/3rd gen PIs or perhaps NS5A inhibitors if the 2nd/3rd gen PIs and NS5A inhibitors wind up being mutually exclusive and not used together in a cocktail. I would still expect there will likely be at least some cocktails comprised of a 2nd/3rd gen PI though. I would certainly expect that one or more of the VRUS nukes would be playing a big part in the HCV market. In total, I'd just venture a guess and say no more than 8 HCV drugs with substantial sales. Could be fewer as you suggest. That's why one really needs to have confidence in the company they choose to back.

In contrast, how many new oncology drugs will have substantial sales 10 years from now? I'd guess maybe 20, and if you look out further, that number will grow. And "substantial" here might well be multi-billion.

It's kind of unfair to compare HCV to oncology though, isn't it? Seems a bit apples and oranges. HCV is one specific virus and market whereas oncology encompasses a wide range of ills and markets (NSCLC, melanoma, pancreatic, breast, etc.). So, of course there will be many more oncology drugs with substantial sales 10 years from now since that's such a broad category.