miler: I can only speak for myself. However, I imagine that other investors may think like I do (God help 'em). Anyone who intends to buy NVEI on the pure speculation that they will come through probably has already done so. I know that I have spent all I am willing to spend on a risky speculative investment. As a speculative risky investment, it is extremely difficult to value NVEI. Is it overvalued or undervalued? Who knows. Regardless, it is risky. Additionally, the risk gets no less as time goes by. In fact, it goes up significantly on January 1, if there is no news. In short, the high-risk speculators are already on board or have passed it up. Either way, I would expect not to see many more speculative buys this year.
However, the instant that NVEI announces a product, it goes from a speculative investment to a small-cap growth investment.It then becomes a bit easier to value, and it becomes a bit less risky. Clearly, a broke company with a real product is a less risky investment than a broke company with no product. So, once there is an announcement, some of the high-risk investors will join the existing high-risk speculators. These investors are willing to miss out on the first day's gap up in order to miss out on the higher risk.
But, both the high-risk speculators and the high-risk investors are not part of the main stream investing community. In order to get these guys, along with the "institutional" investors, the risk factor must come down yet another notch. The primary way to do this is to achieve some semblence of financial security, i.e. revenue. With revenue, and a good understanding of the industry marketplace some mainstream investors will be able to value the company and see its growth potential, and hopefully jump on board. But revenue alone will not satisfy all investors. To get the full spectrum, you need earnings.
So, assuming that NVEI actually does deliver on the promise, I see 4 stages of investor interest:
1) Pure Speculation - now
2) growth - after a product is announced
3) growth with revenue - after sales begin
4) growth with earnings - after a profit is first shown
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