Biotech Values

[oc631]

Question 1: What do you think the SVR rate for the same BMY DAA-only regimen looks like in naives? (I think there is a general assumption being made that if the DAA-only regimen is getting 36% SVR in nulls then it will get >>90% in naives - and I don't think that is necessarily true. Extremely hardy virus wrt SOC doesn't entirely equate to extremely hardy virus wrt DAAs.)

My comments are based on VRUS' dual nuke DAA. Obviously the SVR rate would be much higher in naives than nulls for BMY. Remember BMY's combo experienced viral breakthrough and it's why they are now testing with PSI-7977.

Question 2: If you were a patient and were offered a 24 week course with 90+% chance of SVR in 24 weeks of a 3 DAA only treatment or 90% chance of SVR in 12 weeks of a 3 DAA plus SOC which would you choose? Keeping in mind that the DAAs are not benign in their AE. And keeping in mind that clearly BMY is targeting to use an interferon which has much lower AE then inf-a.

Are you assuming a full 24 weeks of DAA therapy (without SOC) will be necessary for the majority of patients? My feeling is we are looking at shorter durations. Three DAA's plus interferon is actually a 4 drug combination and if you throw in Riba it's 5. Interferon Lambda might be one of BMY's solutions to their shortcomings in DAA development but it is their problem, not VRUS'.