Biotech Values

[mcbio]

When you get such speed and efficacy in a dual nuke combo why experiment with other classes which will only reduce the resistance profile of a two drug combination. What VRUS has developed is the new SOC in HCV treatment and in the future three drug combos will be used for nulls in the second line setting IMO.

Notwithstanding the strong early data, I think it's still too early to say that the two VRUS nukes alone will be sufficient to eliminate interferon from the equation. It's presumably much less likely that the two can remove ribavirin from the equation as well. We also obviously need to see more longer-term data on the nuke-nuke combo, particularly as it relates to safety.

Regarding your prediction of future three drug combos just being used for nulls in a second line setting, if such a narrowed opportunity comes to pass for a 2nd gen PI such as ACHN's ACH-1625, what do you make of the valuation of ACHN at ~$400M market cap in light of such a reduced market opportunity? I.e., do you feel this second line setting still offers a sufficient market opportunity for a 2nd gen PI like 1625 to still merit significant upside potential for ACHN at ~$400M market cap? I'm just thinking about this in terms of worst-case scenario, even though I don't necessarily agree that this is the market opportunity that will come to pass and ACHN has its own NS5A inhibitor due to enter the market any day now as well.

One more point which pertains to the valuation of the company. There are other developers of nucleotide analogs out there but no other company had the insight of combining a purine and pyrimidine nuke thereby giving VRUS tremendous leverage going forward. IMO all the other developers in this class have half a backbone.

I totally agree with you on VRUS' position in the marketplace. The one big concern I have is that things seem to be priced for perfection so what if there is an unforeseen event such as a safety issue that crops up when the two nukes are tested together in longer-duration Phase 3 studies?