Could we see $1/ share in 1 year ? .....
The Valuations stated by Stervc have a few wishful numbers based off of estimated ability of dredges.
1) Dredges will not be running 24 hours/day - There will be needs for at least temporary down time at some point or another( Fuel, moving them to different part of river, possible clogs, need to clean sleuss boxes, etc.) I am certainly no opperational engineer, but that is common sense.
2) The recovery volume of Gold stated is off the charts. I would think 70lbs. of gold per day is bordering on fantasy, even if we do assume 24 hour/ day run time for dredges.
3) Where are the REE #'s ? That is a part I noticed missing from the valuations. Some the tonnage recovered by dredges will be REES in the black sands. So, eevn if the Gold numbers are high some of that difference will be offset by REE not accounted for in valuations above.
4) Gold value should be $1400 / oz. not $1300. I think the value of Gold has proved itself to be an avg. of $1400/oz. for some time now - so let's go with that number.
Revisions :
1) Lets say, as a more realistic estimate the dredges opperate 16 hours of the day. So, 75% of original production time listed.
2) Let's say that the volume of Gold recovered is only 40% of the original 1134 oz./day stated previous, and that includes the overall reduction in production to 16 hours day/ dredges.
NEW Value of NEW GOLD production number at $1400/oz.
453 oz/day x 365 x 1400 = apx. $232,000,000 / yr - GOLD
3) Let's be conservative and use missing REE values of 20 % of Gold produced values. That is of course not seperating the REE out and selling the sands bulk.
$ 232,000,000 x 20% = $46,000,000 estimated REE/yr
4) revenue to profit Steverc used was 25% - that sounds very conservative , but it takes a lot of the what ifs into account and takes into account all expenditures.
$232,000,000 + $46,000,000 = $278,000,000 x 25% = $69,500,000 profit
5) The profit number I came up with here is 52% apx. of the profit listed in original valuation.
6) all of Steve's other processes for derivation of valuation is more than fair and conservative. So, 52% of 1.51/share gives Me the new number of :
.79/ share
with 3 dredges are opperating
7) Sney plans to have more dredges as soon as the current 3 start producing - so far they have done what they said - I have no reason to doubt there will be more production than just three dredges. Further, it has been told to Me by SNEY rep. Steve Parent that they plan on acquiring equipment to seperate the most valuable and easily obtained of the REE, and still sell remaining black sands bulk. This could double the revenue of REE production.
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