Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

UT Comment: Rice, Belarus, “regime change”
By Peter Lavelle
Published on April 22, 2005


Did Condi Rice go too far, not far enough, or on the mark when speaking of the situation in Belarus at the NATO meeting in Vilnius?

I must admit some of her comments took me by surprise, particularly explicit support of street demonstrations to, in effect, overthrow the Lukashenko regime. All post-Soviet republics are different and are going through different stages of political development (development that is not always forward). If Rice thinks of Belarus and no different from Georgia and Ukraine, she is gravely mistaken and, in my opinion, putting the people of Belarus at risk.

Consider the following.

1. The referendum had in Belarus last year allowing Luka to run for another term was anything but fair. However, there is strong evidence it would have passed without state-directed electioneering.

2. Belarus’ economy is doing quite well. In the new century, central planning and the state as the primary employer is working for Belarus. (It is working on the back of Russia’s enormous influence over the Belarus’ economy). Nonetheless, from what I have been told by Belarussians, there is a modicum of contentment with Luka’s handling of the economy. There is also the widespread belief that Luka avoided the chaotic economic course Yelstin pursued when transforming Russia’s economy.

3. Luka has many critics in Belarus, but he is also popular with many citizens. Stated differently, he is not overwhelmingly unpopular. 4. Luka is cornered. If pushed too hard, particularly before the next elections scheduled in 2006, there is evidence he will rely on force to maintain power. If the 2006 elections are not fair, there should be every expectation that a ground swell of some form of opposition will feel empowered to demonstrate, with the whole world watching – including Russia.

5. I don’t want to pour cold water in the hopes for change in Belarus, but Rice’s comments reminded me of when the West publicly supported the Hungarian uprising in 1956, only to do nothing. Such openness to support the political opposition in Belarus before there is an internal catalyst, it appears to me, is more than a bit reckless.

6. Luka has painted himself in corner in another way – he is completely dependent on the Kremlin. Few like to remember the Russia-Belarus Union – which amazingly appears still on track. This Union essentially, not to insult Belarussians, makes Belarus a region of the Russian Federation. Outside “meddling” will certainly be understood as an assault on the sovereignty of Russia – the Kremlin won’t simply stand by a watch this come to pass.

7. Luka is the problem, the answer to Belarus’ problem is probably found in Moscow – and not “rent-a-crowd” organizers from the West. It is also of interest that Luka has opted for the president-for-life route. First, with Belarus’ integration – in whatever form – into Russia, it is hardly conceivable that the Kremlin will allow Luka to stick around as long as he wishes. Second, Luka is actually a weak and unsure leader. The fact that he demands to stay in powers means he has no confidence that even a handpicked successor would protect him after “leaving office.”

8. Luka is a problem for many Belarussians, a thorny issue for the Kremlin, and an insult to modern democratic values. My heart goes out to the many Belarussians I have met who what change in their country. But, at the sometime, Belarus should not be treated as s high school science project – spinning “regime change” in Belarus as a variant of change on Georgia and Ukraine – particularly as an important catalyst for change is not currently in play.

9. Belarus also present us will an odd problem if the “rent-a-crowd” model is applied (and given there is no violence) and some how succeeds. If 10 percent of the population stages a “tent revolution” in Minsk – will we be sure this is what the other 90 percent of the population wants? Is that democracy?

http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/index.html?cat=4&type=3&art=1603