AI
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 9:55:57 PM
CNUV investors please read - I don't know how much research you have done on electric vehicles and lithium ion batteries but... I have been working on a project in school about Electric vehicles and how the automobile market will be shifting to renewable energy sources for vehicles in the near future... This is going to be a HUGE market.
Check out this report by the University of California, Berkeley
Electric Vehicles in the United States A New Model with Forecasts to 2030
Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology (CET)Technical Brief
Number: 2009.1.v.2.0
Revision Date: August 24, 2009
Introduction
It took over sixty years and six generations of gasoline engines for the Chevy Corvette to accelerate from zero to sixty miles per hour in under four seconds. The first version of the Tesla Roadster, which is the world's first Lithium-ion battery powered car, achieved that feat immediately. Whereas earlier generations of electric cars were plagued by poor performance, high cost, and short ranges, a new generation of
affordable, high-performance electric cars is about to enter the U.S. market.
Previous versions of electric vehicles have failed to achieve any signi?cant market share. The shortcomings of these vehicles included expensive and toxic batteries with limited lifespans, severely limited
driving ranges, poor performance, and high overall costs. The improvements in battery technology over the past two decades, in particular the advances in Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology as well as automotive technological advances ushered in by hybrid vehicles, have made it possible to design and manufacture electric vehicles with better performance than their gasoline-powered counterparts. Though
the number of electric vehicles on U.S. roads is currently in the thousands, that number will soon change. Spurred by the breakthroughs in battery and automotive technology, many vehicle manufacturers have indicated their intention to begin mass producing electric vehicles with Lithium-ion batteries within the
next fi?ve years.
This paper forecasts the U.S. adoption rates and macroeconomic impacts of these new Lithium-ion powered electric cars through 2030, but does so for an upcoming innovation that will radically change the pricing, reliability, and driving range of these vehicles: switchable batteries with pay-per-mile service contracts. This vision of separating the ownership of the vehicle from the battery was fi?rst proposed by the company Better Place two years ago. It has since been endorsed by leading car manufacturers, a number of high-pro?le investors, countries, and U.S. states. Renault-Nissan has announced that it will produce its ?rst electric car with switchable batteries in 2010 and will have a lineup of electric cars by 2012.2 Tesla, which to date has been a niche producer of high performance electric cars, recently received government loan guarantees to produce an electric sedan manufactured in America with removable battery technology by the end of 2011.3 Israel, Denmark, Australia, Hawaii, and the San Francisco Bay Area have all begun to deploy electric vehicle charging infrastructure in anticipation of the upcoming supply of electric vehicles.
The production of electric cars with switchable batteries creates the possibility for a new service-based model of electric car ownership. Under this model, electric car network operators will o¤er customers
pay-per-mile contracts that combine the financing costs of the battery with charging and range extension services. These network operators will be able to overcome range concerns by installing and maintaining
systems of battery charging and switching infrastructure that provide customers with a driving range.
Exhibit 11 Capital Expenditures
The left columns represent baseline scenario forecasts and the right columns the operator subsidized scenario forecasts for the capital expenditures (CapEx) on battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure. The battery manufacturing capital expenditure estimates are based on the estimated sales of automotive Liion batteries from domestic producers multiplied by a 30% CapExtoSales ratio. The 30% CapExtoSales ratio is based on discussions with the battery manufacturer A123. The capital expenditures for the charging infrastructure are based on the estimates for a $300 million cell of charge spots and battery switching stations for each 100,000 electric car drivers.
2.2 Capital Expenditures
The electric transportation system modeled in this paper relies on a dense network of charge spots and battery switching stations. To deploy this infrastructure throughout the country will require substantial
fi?nancing and investment.
This section forecasts the domestic capital expenditures associated with the deployment of electric vehicles relying on a system of network operators. It shows the relative levels of investment in the two main growth industries that accompany electric car deployment in this system:
the charging infrastructure deployment and the battery manufacturing. Other sectors will also require large investments to accommodate growth in electric vehicles, particularly electricity generation and grid infrastructure, but forecasting the magnitude and composition of the investments in those industries is beyond the scope of this analysis. Exhibit 11 shows the forecasts for business investments in these two industries under the baseline and operator-subsidized scenarios described in Section 1.3.
The investment estimates for the deployment of a charging infrastructure are based on the network operator model of electric vehicle deployment using battery switching stations and public charge spots. The costs for this type of system are described in Section 1.1.4 and include $300 million of charging infrastructure to support a regional cell of 100,000 electric car drivers. The baseline scenario for electric car deployment estimates there to be networks of over 800 overlapping cells deployed across the United States supporting the roughly 81 million electric car drivers by 2030. The necessary capital expenditures to deploy this network will be nearly $328 billion over the next two decades, $240 billion of which would be for charging infrastructure. The operator-subsidized scenario forecasts 151 million electric car drivers by 2030 and will require nearly 80% more infrastructure investment. By 2030, the annual capital investment University of California, Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology CET Technical Brief Electric Vehicles in the United States 20 in charging infrastructure is estimated to account for between 1% and 1.5% of total U.S. investment.
The United States currently has no large-scale, domestic automotive battery manufacturing facilities. Though many of the research and development breakthroughs in Lithium-ion battery technology have been made by scientists in U.S. research universities, the manufacture of the batteries occurs almost exclusively in Asia. Since the forecasted domestic demand for automotive batteries will be between $37-$50 billion by 2030, it is important that the U.S. incentivize the development of a domestic battery industry to close the U.S. trade de?cit and to ensure employment in a major growth sector.65 In the fi?rst half of 2009 there have been a number of announcements by leading battery manufacturers of plans to construct U.S. production facilities in the coming years.66 Using the available data on battery plant construction, the estimates in Exhibit 11 are based on the assumption that this domestic sector continues to grow over the next decade to eventually supply the same proportion of automotive Li-ion batteries as the domestic auto industry supplies autos.67 If the United States were to invest an even greater amount in battery manufacturing and become an eventual exporter of automotive batteries, the exports from that industry would further close the trade de?cit and would lead to even larger employment gains than those forecast in the next section.
http://cet.berkeley.edu/dl/CET_Technical%20Brief_EconomicModel2030_f.pdf
Sorry about the repost but. I think this is good info that shows where the company is heading.
Check out this report by the University of California, Berkeley
Electric Vehicles in the United States A New Model with Forecasts to 2030
Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology (CET)Technical Brief
Number: 2009.1.v.2.0
Revision Date: August 24, 2009
Introduction
It took over sixty years and six generations of gasoline engines for the Chevy Corvette to accelerate from zero to sixty miles per hour in under four seconds. The first version of the Tesla Roadster, which is the world's first Lithium-ion battery powered car, achieved that feat immediately. Whereas earlier generations of electric cars were plagued by poor performance, high cost, and short ranges, a new generation of
affordable, high-performance electric cars is about to enter the U.S. market.
Previous versions of electric vehicles have failed to achieve any signi?cant market share. The shortcomings of these vehicles included expensive and toxic batteries with limited lifespans, severely limited
driving ranges, poor performance, and high overall costs. The improvements in battery technology over the past two decades, in particular the advances in Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery technology as well as automotive technological advances ushered in by hybrid vehicles, have made it possible to design and manufacture electric vehicles with better performance than their gasoline-powered counterparts. Though
the number of electric vehicles on U.S. roads is currently in the thousands, that number will soon change. Spurred by the breakthroughs in battery and automotive technology, many vehicle manufacturers have indicated their intention to begin mass producing electric vehicles with Lithium-ion batteries within the
next fi?ve years.
This paper forecasts the U.S. adoption rates and macroeconomic impacts of these new Lithium-ion powered electric cars through 2030, but does so for an upcoming innovation that will radically change the pricing, reliability, and driving range of these vehicles: switchable batteries with pay-per-mile service contracts. This vision of separating the ownership of the vehicle from the battery was fi?rst proposed by the company Better Place two years ago. It has since been endorsed by leading car manufacturers, a number of high-pro?le investors, countries, and U.S. states. Renault-Nissan has announced that it will produce its ?rst electric car with switchable batteries in 2010 and will have a lineup of electric cars by 2012.2 Tesla, which to date has been a niche producer of high performance electric cars, recently received government loan guarantees to produce an electric sedan manufactured in America with removable battery technology by the end of 2011.3 Israel, Denmark, Australia, Hawaii, and the San Francisco Bay Area have all begun to deploy electric vehicle charging infrastructure in anticipation of the upcoming supply of electric vehicles.
The production of electric cars with switchable batteries creates the possibility for a new service-based model of electric car ownership. Under this model, electric car network operators will o¤er customers
pay-per-mile contracts that combine the financing costs of the battery with charging and range extension services. These network operators will be able to overcome range concerns by installing and maintaining
systems of battery charging and switching infrastructure that provide customers with a driving range.
Exhibit 11 Capital Expenditures
The left columns represent baseline scenario forecasts and the right columns the operator subsidized scenario forecasts for the capital expenditures (CapEx) on battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure. The battery manufacturing capital expenditure estimates are based on the estimated sales of automotive Liion batteries from domestic producers multiplied by a 30% CapExtoSales ratio. The 30% CapExtoSales ratio is based on discussions with the battery manufacturer A123. The capital expenditures for the charging infrastructure are based on the estimates for a $300 million cell of charge spots and battery switching stations for each 100,000 electric car drivers.
2.2 Capital Expenditures
The electric transportation system modeled in this paper relies on a dense network of charge spots and battery switching stations. To deploy this infrastructure throughout the country will require substantial
fi?nancing and investment.
This section forecasts the domestic capital expenditures associated with the deployment of electric vehicles relying on a system of network operators. It shows the relative levels of investment in the two main growth industries that accompany electric car deployment in this system:
the charging infrastructure deployment and the battery manufacturing. Other sectors will also require large investments to accommodate growth in electric vehicles, particularly electricity generation and grid infrastructure, but forecasting the magnitude and composition of the investments in those industries is beyond the scope of this analysis. Exhibit 11 shows the forecasts for business investments in these two industries under the baseline and operator-subsidized scenarios described in Section 1.3.
The investment estimates for the deployment of a charging infrastructure are based on the network operator model of electric vehicle deployment using battery switching stations and public charge spots. The costs for this type of system are described in Section 1.1.4 and include $300 million of charging infrastructure to support a regional cell of 100,000 electric car drivers. The baseline scenario for electric car deployment estimates there to be networks of over 800 overlapping cells deployed across the United States supporting the roughly 81 million electric car drivers by 2030. The necessary capital expenditures to deploy this network will be nearly $328 billion over the next two decades, $240 billion of which would be for charging infrastructure. The operator-subsidized scenario forecasts 151 million electric car drivers by 2030 and will require nearly 80% more infrastructure investment. By 2030, the annual capital investment University of California, Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology CET Technical Brief Electric Vehicles in the United States 20 in charging infrastructure is estimated to account for between 1% and 1.5% of total U.S. investment.
The United States currently has no large-scale, domestic automotive battery manufacturing facilities. Though many of the research and development breakthroughs in Lithium-ion battery technology have been made by scientists in U.S. research universities, the manufacture of the batteries occurs almost exclusively in Asia. Since the forecasted domestic demand for automotive batteries will be between $37-$50 billion by 2030, it is important that the U.S. incentivize the development of a domestic battery industry to close the U.S. trade de?cit and to ensure employment in a major growth sector.65 In the fi?rst half of 2009 there have been a number of announcements by leading battery manufacturers of plans to construct U.S. production facilities in the coming years.66 Using the available data on battery plant construction, the estimates in Exhibit 11 are based on the assumption that this domestic sector continues to grow over the next decade to eventually supply the same proportion of automotive Li-ion batteries as the domestic auto industry supplies autos.67 If the United States were to invest an even greater amount in battery manufacturing and become an eventual exporter of automotive batteries, the exports from that industry would further close the trade de?cit and would lead to even larger employment gains than those forecast in the next section.
http://cet.berkeley.edu/dl/CET_Technical%20Brief_EconomicModel2030_f.pdf
Sorry about the repost but. I think this is good info that shows where the company is heading.
Everything I say is merely in my opinion and should not be taken as fact unless stated otherwise. Also, I am not a licensed professional so definitely don't base your buys or sells off of my opinions or posts.
