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Re: Bacchus_II post# 53039

Saturday, 12/07/2002 9:51:40 AM

Saturday, December 07, 2002 9:51:40 AM

Post# of 704041
No, not offended at all. The danger in picking out a single situation from the close to 100 stocks I opine on, is that it does not describe correctly the statistical success or lack thereof of the turnips' tools. Take a group like the 30 Dow stocks. On May 11th this year, I provided in essence "OB"s for all 30, these were target low prices that were to be exceeded on the down side before the end of the year. Of those 30 stocks, fully 90% exceeded those targets (27 stocks), two printed lows within less than 5% of those targets and only a single one, AXP was relatively far from the mark (I had a "hit of $19" and AXP turned after a hit of $14 or $15). Similarly, once again with the Dow stocks, the turnips proposed this year two "Dow gambits" including each 6 of the Dow stocks, the results of these two was a cool 40% plus return in two plays each lasting about a month, only the Realist managed to lose money on that gambit (chosing the most dangerous entry, IBM, and refusing to reenter at a lower price and refusing to do what was advised, the whole gambit). Frankly, with that kind of a record, I think I'll keep using the turnips a they are, without too much tuning up... (g).

The turnips are far from perfect, but statistically, the number of successful calls exceeds the bad ones by a good margin, and in those events that they fail, strategies are in place to change course and thus fulfil the main goal of this game, making profits while preserving capital.

Zeev


AZH

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