A direct cash payment would not pass muster with the FTC. I see the framework of a settlement giving NVS/MNTA the right to launch on a specified date in 2012 or 2013 in return for a nominal royalty on sales payable to Teva from the launch date until expiration of the patents in May 2014.
The agreed upon launch date will depend on each party’s assessment of its chances of winning the patent trial—the stronger NVS/MNTA’s case appears to be, the earlier the specified launch date.
A prerequisite for settling is, of course, FDA approval of NVS/MNTA’s ANDA.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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