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Analysis: Putin heads to Israel

By Joshua Brilliant
UPI Israel Correspondent

Jerusalem, Israel, Apr. 22[, 2005] (UPI) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin is due in Israel next week and it is not clear why is he coming now and what the visit will produce.

Russian and Israeli diplomats say the visit as "historic." The visit will be the first time a Russian head of state visits the Middle East. Putin was in Israel in 1997 and 1998, before he became president.

He will be in Cairo next Tuesday and arrive in Israel Wednesday evening for a red carpet reception but no fanfare. Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will receive him at the airport. Thursday he will meet his official host President Moshe Katsav, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom. He will visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial, which has become a must for foreign dignitaries, meet Jewish Red Army World War II veterans, Russian Orthodox clergy, and visit the Russian Church in Gethsemane whose onion-shaped gilded tops will probably remind him of home.

On Friday, he will meet Palestinian Authority leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas and leave in the area in the mid-afternoon, back in Moscow for the May Day celebrations.

As far as diplomatic niceties go, Putin accepted an invitation that Katsav extended when they met in Poland in January. Sharon who occasionally talks to him over the phone also invited him.

The Russians asked if a visit in April would be good. The Israelis said, "Yes," but it wasn't quite so. Next week the Jews are celebrating Passover and government officials have the week off. Now some of them can forget about spending that time on the beach.

In an interview to the Yediot Aharonot newspaper, published Friday, Sharon said he believed the Russians are eager "to become an empire once again."

People, especially in the West, are "not so well-versed on the subject of (Russian) national pride, the desire to return to an influential front line position," he told Israel Radio.

Russian-Israeli relations have fluctuated. Moscow helped the Jews get arms from Czechoslovakia and tip the scales during the 1948 Israel-Arab war. However, from 1955 to the mid-1970s, it strongly backed the Arabs. Russia threatened to attack Israel during the 1956 Sinai Campaign, as it did in the 1973 war when the United States kept it in check. Russian pilots flew sorties over Egypt and after they hit an Israeli Skyhawk, Israeli pilots ambushed them and downed five. There were no diplomatic relations for years.

"I am sure they have no intention to return to the Middle East in the way they have been involved then," Sharon said.

The spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv, Alexei Drobinin, maintained the visit is designed "to promote relations between the two countries, discuss the whole range of issues relating to the bilateral cooperation and the Middle East process."

There is no sign of a new Russian initiative, a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official said.

"There is not even the beginning of a thought or a hint (of it)," he told United Press International.

Apparently U.S. and European diplomats are not aware of any such plan either.

Russia, along with the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, is a member of the Quartet that drafted the "road map" for peace that calls for reciprocal Israeli and Palestinian confidence building measures. Those should lead to the creation of an independent Palestinian state that would live in peace with Israel.

Amnon Sella, a professor of International Relations at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, said he believed Putin's visit sends a message: "We're here. You can't ignore us."

"Usually visits are made when there are common interests ... I found no common interests. Sometimes one comes when there is a unilateral interest ... and when Putin invites himself, one cannot refuse, one should not refuse," Sella said.

There is no chance Israel would agree the Russians play a significant role in the core issues dividing it and the Palestinians.

"The prime minister never had an intention to let anyone, except the Americans, have a foothold in the political process," Haaretz newspaper noted.

In an interview in Moscow to Israel's Channel 1 TV this week, Putin said Russia intends to go ahead and sell Syria SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles. Then Israeli planes will no longer be able to create sonic booms over Syrian President Bashar Assad's palace in Latakiya as they had done several years ago to warn Syria against involvement in attacks on Israel.

Sharon tried to persuade Putin not to sell the missiles. A senior military source told UPI the army was mainly concerned those missiles would reach Palestinian militants in the West Bank who would use them against civilian airliners.

"Israel cannot oppose Russian arms sales to Arabs," Sharon acknowledged. "Everybody sells arms, Israel and the United States too."

However, he told Yediot Aharonot, he was concerned those missiles could reach Hezbollah or other terror organizations.

"Palestinian terror organizations have (already) managed to smuggle less advanced shoulder missiles," he old Israel Radio.

Sharon said he intended to raise the issue with Putin. The senior Foreign Ministry official said he believed "no deal is finalized until the missiles are there (meaning in Syria)."

Analyzing Putin's remarks in the TV interview, Sella said the Russian president signaled the deal is done, it does not threaten Israel and "consequently it is not a topic for deliberations."

The second issue that has been festering for years is Russia's help to Iran's nuclear program.

"Iran is making every effort to become a nuclear power," Sharon said and the senior Israel diplomat noted Iran openly calls for Israel's destruction. The Russians "understand" Israel's position but attempts to persuade them to cease assistance have failed, the diplomat noted.

On other matters, the going may be smoother. Both countries are concerned with the threat of terror and the head of Israel's National Security Council, Giora Eiland, has been to Russia twice. According to one report, Israel was advising Russia how to combat urban terror.

"It is natural the countries that suffer from terrorism talk to each other about terrorist issues. We talk to them about these issues as well," the senior Foreign Ministry official said.

Trade between the two countries had been increasing, fast. In 1997, six years after the two countries renewed diplomatic relations, bilateral trade (excluding fuel) totaled $390 million. Last year it reached $1.2 billion.

"That is more than Russia's trade with all the Arab sates together," the senior official noted.

Sharon intends to raise the issue of anti-Semitism following recent "harsh signs" of it in Russia, the prime minister said.

Russian Jews have been among Israel's founding fathers since the late 19th century when some could not identify with rising Russian nationalism and came to Palestine to express their own. Sharon's parents fled Soviet rebels in Georgia in 1922 and came to Palestine. Sharon speaks Russian.

He attended a Likud Party rally in Hadera Wednesday night and was introduced to the mayors of surrounding communities. "Yosefov," the announcer said.

"At last there is (someone from the) Caucasus here," Sharon quipped and the audience laughed.

Cultural ties are close. Some 1 million people emigrated from the former Russian-speaking countries in the last 15 years affecting the social and cultural character of the Jewish state.

Sharon said he believed Putin may "want to spread his wings over the people who left Russia ... and tighten ties with them." Sella doubted Israel would welcome that.

Some Israelis noted the Russian Orthodox Church will celebrating Easter next weekend. A visit to its church in Gethsemane on the eve of the holiday would be almost perfect timing, they suggested.

Copyright 2005 United Press International

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050422-090421-6505r.htm (emphasis added)