FinancialAdvisor's College Class (FACC)

[AnderL]

All quite true that the markets are in the intermediate term bearish and are turning over into the bear side of the cyclical cycle and have been in a secular bear since 2000. but it still requires precision in selling the markets.

I do want to point out that the markets have only retraced 25% of the move off the bottom in 2003. While it is unlikely there is a possibility that there might be enough for the markets to make another intermediate cycle up after a test of the 25% retracement.

The most ideal position would have been to open up shorts and go into bear funds back through the end of December 2004 as the Rising Wedge pattern was Significant. Divergence in the price and indicators like RSI and MACD between the Jan and Mar tops would have been a confirmation of a greater bear move.

A new Bearish position or a point to add to that position would be a break of the 25% retracement to the downside. The markets are flat since Monday and have not reached a point where they can be considered overbought enough to get a good drive to the downside. That is why I'm expecting some more bulls to come in to short on. It seems that the market drift flat for a few trading days before making some strong move in one direction or another. The key is to get in just prior to the move. I agree with SK that it is still be too early to get in, without facing more upside risk.